THE by-election for the Kuala Kubu Baharu state seat will be fought over a cocktail of national and local issues, observers said.
They said opposition bloc Perikatan Nasional is bound to harp on recent issues that have gripped the country, such as the acquittal and reduction of legal cases involving government and coalition party leaders, tariff increases and the plan to review subsidies.
The Pakatan Harapan state government is expected to point to its record on running the state since it returned to power in last year’s state elections.
"The federal government has been under scrutiny over the past year following the acquittal or sentence reduction in legal cases involving government or coalition party leaders (Najib Razak, Ahmad Zahid Hamidi) , tariff increases and likely subsidy reduction for consumer staples,” Merdeka Center for Opinion Research co-founder Ibrahim Suffian said.
"Despite these issues and challenges, PH is favoured to win the constituency," he said.
But PH's chances will be affected by the voter turnout and the emergence of new candidates and parties that may eat into its support base, he said
The Selangor seat in KKB fell vacant following the death of its three-term assemblyman Lee Kee Hiong, who died on March 21 after a battle with cancer.
The residents will vote on May 11. Nomination day is on April 27 and early voting, May 7.
It is the seventh by-election to be held since the 2022 general election, after the Kuala Terengganu, Kemaman, and Pulai parliamentary seats and the Simpang Jeram, Pelangai, and Jepak state seats.
Lee won the seat in 2013 after defeating MCA’s Ooi Hui Wen by 1,702 votes. She defended it in 2018 with a 7,134-vote majority over MCA’s Wong Koon Mun, before retaining it for a third term last year.
Kuala Kubu Baharu has 40,226 registered voters consisting of 39,362 regular voters, 625 police members and their spouses, 238 military members and their spouses, and one absentee voter living abroad.
The voters are 50% Malay, 32% Chinese, and 18% Indian.
Ibrahim said a PH win will signal that despite challenges and voter doubts, the coalition government remains stable and is likely to last the full term at the federal level.
"If PN wins, it may be a sign of further erosion of Malay support for the PH-BN coalition. It will show that PN has made inroads into the non-Malay community or have successfully organised an informal alliance with other parties that could split the votes for PH.
"Such an outcome may force a rethink of how the government will roll out necessary but unpopular moves such as cutting back fuel subsidies."
He said traditional DAP voters will turn out to support the party no matter what.
International Islamic University Malaysia’s political science lecturer Tunku Mohar Tunku Mohd Mokhtar said the opposition will play up national issues while PH-BN will campaign on local issues.
"Based on previous results, PH has a better chance. However, if Malay support swings to BN because of current issues, PN can spring a surprise. This, however, looks unlikely.
"It won’t change the status quo. Except that if PN wins, it could be read as a continuing trend of a realignment of Malay support for PN."
He said that the opposition would surely exploit national issues that were familiar to the voters.
"Sympathy will be a factor, as the former assemblyman was very close to the constituents. What should also be seen is how strong ethnic sentiments can pull Malay voters towards PN."
Universiti Teknologi Malaysia lecturer Mazlan Ali said PH is likely to underscore the country’s stability under the leadership of Prime Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim.
He said PN will harp on the rising cost of living, which affects every Malaysian.
"Local issues will also be raised and PH has an advantage over the opposition as the Selangor state government and at the federal levels are under its control.
"Of course, the people of Kuala Kubu Baharu will benefit from the state programmes and incentivest."
He said PH was the favourite to win the seat because it has the support of all races.
"This by-election is important for PH and PN because it will indicate which coalition has the support of voters." – April 12, 2024
