JOHOR’S political landscape will come under renewed scrutiny tomorrow as voters decide whether the state remains firmly in Barisan Nasional’s (BN) hands, delivers gains for Pakatan Harapan (PH), or gives Perikatan Nasional (PN) the breakthrough it has been seeking.
After weeks of campaigning, political analyst Dr Azmi Hassan of Academy Nusantara believes BN enters polling day with the strongest momentum among the three major coalitions, driven by its extensive grassroots machinery and longstanding influence in the state.
“Looking at the campaign, I think BN is way ahead of PH and PN. Depending on the number of voters tomorrow, if turnout is high, it will be a huge advantage for BN,” he said.
Dr Azmi said a strong turnout could strengthen BN’s position and allow the coalition to retain the Johor government without needing support from either PH or PN.
The assessment comes as BN attempts to reaffirm its position in a state that has long been considered Umno’s political fortress, despite recent shifts in voter behaviour and the rise of new political forces.
However, the election may not necessarily be a setback for PH.
Dr Azmi believes PH could increase its representation in the state assembly, potentially gaining more than the 12 seats it currently holds, largely by making inroads into areas previously held by smaller opposition parties.
“For PH, I think they will have more than 12 seats, more than what they have right now, at the expense of Bersatu and Muda,” he said.
While PH may not be in a position to form the state government, gains in Johor would provide the coalition with renewed confidence and strengthen its argument that its political base remains intact despite its partnership with BN at the federal level.
The biggest question mark, however, surrounds PN.
Despite making significant gains nationally during the 15th General Election, the coalition faces a different challenge in Johor, where BN’s traditional machinery remains deeply rooted.
Dr Azmi predicted that PN could struggle to convert its support into actual seats, particularly for Bersatu and PAS.
“PN may receive the same fate as DAP during the Sabah state election, meaning zero seats for Bersatu and PAS,” he said.
If that happens, it would represent a major setback for PN’s attempt to establish itself as a dominant force outside its traditional strongholds.
Beyond the contest between parties, turnout is expected to be the defining factor.
A high voter turnout could favour BN by activating its extensive network of supporters, while lower participation could create uncertainty and open opportunities for opposition parties.
Johor’s election is therefore not merely about who forms the next state government.
It is also a measure of whether traditional political machinery still holds sway, whether PH’s coalition strategy is paying off, and whether PN can translate national momentum into state-level victories.
The result will provide an early indication of the direction of Malaysian politics as parties position themselves for the next major electoral battle. – July 10, 2026
