PAS’ 68th muktamar: who will be its GE15 ‘marriage’ partner?

ALOR STAR – PAS’ 68th muktamar or annual assembly in Kedah starts today and will go on through the weekend. The Islamist party must decide who will it “marry” for the upcoming 15th general election (GE15) during the muktamar.

On one hand, PAS is formally part of the Perikatan Nasional (PN) coalition with Bersatu, Gerakan, Parti Solidariti Tanah Airku (Star), and the Sabah Progressive Party (SAPP).

On the other hand, it courted Umno first after Barisan Nasional’s (BN) historic fall from federal power in the 2018 general election – which led to PAS and Umno forming a pact called Muafakat Nasional.

Where will PAS stand when GE15 is called? 

Several PAS insiders have stated their preference for a “hybrid strategy” of working with Umno in some Malay heartland states while working with PN in seats where opposition Pakatan Harapan (PH) is strong.

“But this may also confuse voters, particularly in the rural areas which remain PAS’ strongholds. The party might have too many allies until (it confuses) the voters as they don’t know who’s the enemy," a few party insiders told The Vibes.

Political scientist Sivamurugan Pandian from Universiti Sains Malaysia said the PAS leadership must evaluate sentiments among its grassroots before deciding the party’s way forward.

“Multi-cornered fights are looking likely so PAS may need to mediate and negotiate with Umno.”

He feels working with Umno under Muakafat is one of the best options – or at the very least, this arrangement should be kept at state level or in certain seats if PAS wants to remain in power.

“PAS should also revisit its performance at Melaka and Johor to gear up towards elections,” Sivamurugan said in an interview, alluding to PAS’ defeat in both states under the PN flag. The party failed to win any of the eight state seats it contested in the Melaka polls, and only won one out of 15 it contested in Johor.

In the run-up to GE15, which is under speculation of being called this year, PAS has been urging Umno to revive Muafakat and discuss how both parties could contest for 27 parliamentary seats.

PAS deputy president Tuan Ibrahim Tuan Man was reported saying he feared these seats, which he did not name, could be lost to PH. As such, Umno and PAS had to ensure straight fights there.

According to analyst Wong Chin Huat, PAS doesn’t count on non-Muslim support. 

In fact, its president Datuk Seri Abdul Hadi Awang often deliberately plays to his gallery by attacking non-Muslims, Wong said.

“How far this strategy would work is hard to tell. The narrative of Malays under siege has become less convincing after the Sheraton Move installed two governments that are Malay-majority, yet are plagued by infighting between three Malay parties. 

“The disillusion with parties has caused an all-time high rate of abstention (from voting), as high as 45% In Johor,” said Wong.

A high turnout rate may pose a higher risk to PAS, especially in Kelantan, where it has ruled since 1990 and grown complacent – as well as in Kedah where Menteri Besar Datuk Seri Muhammed Sanusi Md Nor’s “rough” style has alienated fence-sitters.

Wong said that it remains to be seen if PAS can continue to dominate in its three states – Kedah, Kelantan and Terengganu –  especially if Umno finds new wind, and if both parties do not collaborate.

Hadi Awang’s successor 

Another question the muktamar might have to deal with is the health of Hadi, PAS’ long-serving party president Datuk Seri Abdul Hadi Awang.

The frail Terengganu leader is 74 but is stricken with heart issues. It is believed he may be serving his last term.

Yet, he is still able to stir controversy as he did in the 1990s with his “Amanat Hadi” (decree) declaring Umno a “kafir” or party of infidels. He currently has police reports lodged against him for recently saying that non-Muslims are the main cause of corruption in the country.

Though controversial to non-Muslims, his legacy within PAS is intact for endearing the party to the Muslim masses.

Under Hadi, PAS has captured two additional states in recent general elections, and Perlis is looking like the next possibility given that PAS’ present spiritual adviser Datuk Seri Hashim Jasin hails from there, while Umno is split in the country’s smallest state.

PAS also needs to figure out what roles can Hadi’s son, Muhammed Khalil Abdul Hadi, and the late spiritual advisor Datuk Nik Abdul Aziz Nik Mat’s son Nik Abduh, can play in the party after both relinquish their positions in the youth wing.

The Youth, Muslimat (Women’s) and Ulama wings of PAS hold their annual assemblies today, while the main PAS assembly will be held tomorrow and Sunday at the Raia Hotel and Convention Centre in Alor Star. – The Vibes, September 2, 2022