A POWERFUL earthquake that has a high chance of occurring beneath Tokyo and nearby areas within the next few decades could kill 18,000 people and cause 83 trillion yen (US$535 billion) in economic damage in the worst-case scenario, a draft government estimate showed Friday (Dec 5).
The estimate, made under the scenario of a magnitude 7.3 quake hitting the metropolitan area, is less severe than the previous one in 2015, but falls short of the government's goal at the time of halving the projected death toll over 10 years, Kyodo News Agency reported.
The revisions, from the earlier estimated 23,000 deaths and economic losses of 95 trillion yen, factored in progress on measures to make buildings more resistant to earthquakes and fires, reported Bernama-Kyodo.
As Japan is prone to natural disasters, the government plans to update its basic plan to ramp up disaster preparedness after presenting the estimate to a panel of experts later this month.
The magnitude 7.3 quake estimated is smaller than the magnitude 9.0 tremor that hit northeastern Japan and caused multiple meltdowns at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant in 2011.
The government sees a roughly 70 per cent chance of such an earthquake occurring in Tokyo and its vicinity in 30 years' time, a scenario that would affect millions of people in the metropolitan area that hosts government offices and corporate headquarters.
Some 400,000 buildings could be destroyed and 8.4 million people could be stranded or face difficulty returning home.
The number of disaster-related deaths, such as those caused by deteriorating health due to taking shelter, is estimated to reach somewhere between 16,000 and 41,000, the draft estimate showed. - December 6, 2025
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