CHINA reported a record-breaking trade surplus of US$1.189 trillion in 2025, underscoring the resilience of its export machine as producers brace for an extended period of trade pressure under a renewed Trump administration in Washington.
Reuters, on Wednesday, cited customs data which showed the surplus surpassed the trillion-dollar mark for the first time in November and closed the year at a level comparable to the gross domestic product of a major economy such as Saudi Arabia.
The milestone comes as Chinese manufacturers increasingly redirect exports toward Southeast Asia, Africa and Latin America to counter higher US tariffs.
Beijing has leaned heavily on exports to offset a prolonged property downturn and sluggish domestic demand, a strategy that economists warn could further unsettle global markets already concerned about China’s trade practices, industrial overcapacity and growing dependence on Chinese goods.
“The momentum for global trade growth looks to be insufficient, and the external environment for China’s foreign trade development remains severe and complex,” Wang Jun, vice minister at China’s customs administration, said at a press briefing on Wednesday.
However, he added that “with more diversified trading partners, (China’s) ability to withstand risks has been significantly enhanced,” stressing that “the fundamentals for China’s foreign trade remains solid.”
Outbound shipments from the world’s second-largest economy grew 6.6 per cent year on year in December, accelerating from a 5.9 per cent rise in November and comfortably beating a Reuters forecast of 3.0 per cent. Imports rose 5.7 per cent, up from 1.9 per cent previously and well above expectations for a 0.9 per cent increase.
“Strong export growth helps to mitigate the weak domestic demand,” said Zhiwei Zhang, chief economist at Pinpoint Asset Management.
“Combined with the booming stock market and stable U.S.-China relations, the government is likely to keep the macro policy stance unchanged at least in Q1,” he added.
Financial markets reacted positively to the data. The yuan held steady, while China’s benchmark Shanghai Composite index and the CSI300 blue-chip index both rose more than 1 per cent in morning trade.
China recorded monthly trade surpluses exceeding US$100 billion on seven occasions last year, compared with just once in 2024. Analysts said this highlights how President Donald Trump’s return to the White House has had limited impact on China’s overall global trade, even as shipments to the United States declined sharply.
Exports to the US fell 20 per cent in dollar terms in 2025, while imports from the US dropped 14.6 per cent. At the same time, Chinese exporters made significant gains elsewhere, with shipments to Africa surging 25.8 per cent, exports to the ASEAN bloc rising 13.4 per cent, and deliveries to the European Union increasing 8.4 per cent.
Trump said on Tuesday that he believed China could open its markets further to American goods, a day after threatening to impose a 25 per cent tariff on countries trading with Iran, a move that risked reigniting tensions with Beijing, Tehran’s largest trading partner.
Economists expect China to continue expanding its global market share this year, supported by overseas production hubs that offer lower-tariff access to the US and EU, as well as strong demand for lower-grade chips and consumer electronics.
China’s auto sector, a flagship of its industrial ambitions, saw exports rise 19.4 per cent to 5.79 million vehicles last year, with pure electric vehicle shipments jumping 48.8 per cent. China is set to remain the world’s largest auto exporter for a third consecutive year after overtaking Japan in 2023.
Even so, Beijing has signalled growing awareness of the need to moderate export growth to ease economic imbalances and international friction. Following the release of November’s trillion-dollar surplus data, Premier Li Qiang called for “proactively expanding imports and promoting the balanced development of imports and exports,” according to state television.
China has also scrapped export tax rebates for its solar industry, a long-standing source of tension with the European Union, and last month fast-tracked amendments to its Foreign Trade Law, signalling a willingness to shift away from heavy industrial subsidies toward more open trade practices.
Despite a tariff truce agreed by Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping in late October, US duties on Chinese goods remain as high as 47.5 per cent, well above the roughly 35 per cent level analysts say is needed for Chinese exporters to remain profitable in the US market. - January 14, 2026
