CRUDE oil prices held steady at around US$68.50 a barrel on Friday as global energy markets continued to price in easing geopolitical risks, with commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz recovering and regional crude exports returning towards normal levels.
The benchmark remained close to prices recorded before conflict erupted in the Middle East in late February, signalling growing confidence that disruptions to global oil supplies are easing.
Saudi Arabia has restored crude exports to approximately 90 per cent of pre-conflict volumes as an increasing number of tankers safely navigate the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world's most strategically important oil shipping routes.
The United Arab Emirates has also returned exports to pre-war levels by quietly routing tankers through the strait while making greater use of an alternative pipeline that bypasses the maritime chokepoint.
The improvement in energy supply has coincided with renewed diplomatic momentum between Washington and Tehran.
US President Donald Trump said negotiations with Iran were progressing well after mediators from Qatar and Pakistan held separate meetings with American and Iranian officials in Doha on Wednesday, reinforcing hopes of further de-escalation in the region.
The softer geopolitical backdrop also contributed to broader movements across financial markets, where the US dollar weakened following disappointing American labour market data.
The euro climbed around 0.5 per cent against the greenback to 1.1430, supported by both dollar weakness and resilient labour market conditions across the eurozone.
Official data from Eurostat showed the euro area's unemployment rate remained unchanged at 6.2 per cent in May, while unemployment across the wider European Union was also steady at 5.9 per cent, down from 6.0 per cent a year earlier. The figures suggested employment conditions remain robust despite subdued economic growth.
Sterling also advanced, with GBP/USD trading near 1.3350 as investors balanced a weaker US dollar against continuing uncertainty over the Bank of England's monetary policy outlook. Persistent inflationary pressures and mixed economic indicators have kept expectations for future UK interest rate decisions finely balanced.
The Japanese yen strengthened significantly, pushing USD/JPY down almost one per cent to around 161.10 after weaker US jobs figures reduced Treasury yields and eased expectations of further Federal Reserve policy tightening. Markets also remained alert to the possibility of intervention by Japanese authorities should the yen weaken excessively.
The Australian dollar likewise benefited from the weaker greenback, with AUD/USD approaching 0.6920. However, gains remained measured as investors awaited fresh economic data from both Australia and China.
Gold prices remained above US$4,100 an ounce after surging more than two per cent in the previous session, supported by mounting expectations that the Federal Reserve may adopt a less aggressive policy stance following weaker-than-anticipated US employment figures.
The US economy created only 57,000 jobs in June, marking the smallest monthly increase in four months and falling well short of market expectations for 110,000 new positions. The unemployment rate stood at 4.2 per cent.
The disappointing figures followed weaker private-sector employment data released earlier in the week, reinforcing concerns that the US labour market is beginning to lose momentum.
As a result, traders sharply reduced expectations for further Federal Reserve interest rate increases. Fed funds futures now indicate roughly a 50 per cent probability of a September rate hike, compared with 67 per cent before the latest employment report.
Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh also said this week that inflation expectations were moderating while reaffirming the central bank's commitment to maintaining price stability. - July 3, 2026
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