Umno no longer national player, says analyst

UMNO must come to terms with its diminished national-level influence after suffering several significant electoral defeats since 2018, according to a political scientist.

Much like PAS, which is seen as a dominant force in the Malay-majority states of the northern east coast of Peninsular Malaysia, Professor Wong Chin Huat believes Umno is now mainly a regional party, with its influence largely confined to the southern parts of the peninsula.

"The recent Umno general assembly discussed ambitious goals, such as regaining a two-thirds majority in future elections. However, they overlooked a key issue,” said the Sunway University academic.

Wong suggested that Umno should first recognise that it has been reduced to a "regional" party based on the results of recent elections.

He pointed out that PAS had almost wiped out Umno in the northern states of Perlis, Kedah, Kelantan, and Terengganu, while the party’s presence is minimal in the Pakatan Harapan (PH) strongholds of Penang and Selangor.

“Umno holds the most sway only in Negri Sembilan,” he said.

Wong highlighted that in the six states of Perlis, Kedah, Kelantan, Terengganu, Penang, and Selangor, there are a combined total of 75 parliamentary and 224 state seats. Of these, the Umno-led Barisan Nasional coalition holds no parliamentary seats and just five state seats (2.23%).

In contrast, Perikatan Nasional (PN), led by PAS, secured 48 (64%) parliamentary seats and 155 (69.10%) state seats in these states. Meanwhile, PH won 27 (36%) parliamentary seats and 64 (28.57%) state seats.

“With such a narrow margin of victory, it will be challenging for Umno to attract new talent in states where they have lost ground. Naturally, the most talented individuals are likely to join parties with a better chance of winning,” Wong said in a social media post.

Although Umno performed worst in Terengganu, failing to win a single seat, Wong pointed out that the party’s weakest performance, in terms of vote share, was in the PH-dominated states of Penang and Selangor.

Despite winning two state seats in both Penang and Selangor, Umno’s vote share was a mere 5.56% in Penang and 9.18% in Selangor during the state elections last year. This was a decline from 15.19% in Penang and 17.40% in Selangor during the 2018 state elections.

Wong explained that, besides the loss of support, the current first-past-the-post (FPTP) electoral system under the Westminster model exacerbates the situation, making winners stronger while punishing losers more severely.

He suggested a more balanced distribution of seats by the Election Commission, with the creation of more seats and the introduction of proportional representation.

Currently, parties that lose under the FPTP system are heavily penalised, even if they have a significant vote share in some states. For example, Wong argued that Umno might have secured more seats in Terengganu if there had been additional seats, as its vote share there was relatively high.

To endure these tough conditions, Wong advised that, pending a potential revival, Umno must cooperate with PH while also competing with them. He concluded that Umno has no other option but to adopt this strategy for political survival. – September 16, 2024.