KUALA LUMPUR – Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin’s call for a special cabinet meeting today comes at a time when the scuttlebutt is rife with talk of political change and intrigue.
People familiar with the matter, however, say that the prime minister is expected to discuss a litany of issues with regard to support for the Perikatan Nasional (PN) government, and with measures related to the coronavirus pandemic being high up on the agenda.
This is because Muhyiddin – who refers to himself as “Abah” or father in Malay – is expected to face a serious test of leadership when the Dewan Rakyat tables Budget 2021 on November 6, a source said.
Unlike previous prime ministers, Muhyiddin leads by a razor-thin majority in Parliament (112 to 114 of 222 seats – although Opposition Leader Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim now claims to command a 121-seat majority).
Failing to get his budget approved is tantamount to a no-confidence vote, and therefore a collapse in government.
Malaysia watcher James Chin believes Umno will be the basis of Muhyiddin’s ability to get next year’s federal allocation passed. If the Barisan Nasional (BN) keystone backs the prime minister, “the chances of having his budget defeated are very slim”, he said.
Also, such defeat has “never happened before in Malaysia”, added Chin, director of the Asia Institute, University of Tasmania.
“What a lot of people don't realise is that you can still make very last-minute changes to the budget within the first and third readings. So if Muhyiddin thinks he is going to lose, he is going to add in a few items to please Umno. So chances of him being defeated are very, very slim.”
Successive governments have come close to having allocations cancelled albeit at the ministry-level.
BN was almost defeated by one vote after it debated the 2018 allocation for the Domestic Trade, Cooperatives and Consumerism Ministry, while Pakatan Harapan (PH) was only able to push through this year's allocation for the Women, Family and Community Development Ministry by four votes.
Political observers are not the only ones who believe Muhyiddin has a fighting chance. Capital market participants also argue that they have not priced in such a defeat.
“Investors assume Umno will back the budget bill,” said a fund manager. Should Muhyiddin lose in the august house, the fund manager added, “Malaysia can expect another degree of uncertainty.”
Universiti Sains Malaysia’s Azmil Mohd Tayeb said: “The implication is clear if the budget bill is defeated.”
Muhyiddin’s government, the political scientist added, no longer commanded the majority.
“He should step down and let the Yang di-Pertuan Agong appoint the one who has the majority as per the constitutional convention.” – The Vibes, October 23, 2020
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