KUALA LUMPUR – Barisan Nasional’s (BN) best chance at retaining federal power lies in the coalition expediting the election date, despite Datuk Seri Ismail Sabri Yaakob’s insistence to delay it.
Political observers noted this as factions within Umno continue to argue over the most optimum time for the party to conduct the national polls, with just a year remaining before the parliamentary term ends.
Speaking to The Vibes, Singapore Institute of International Affairs senior fellow Oh Ei Sun noted that Ismail Sabri recently premised his justification to hold off the election on the current inflation and food shortages.
However, Oh said the global economic reality today means the prime minister’s argument may not hold water.
“The general consensus among those in the economic know is that the economy, together with its attendant problems, will actually get worse and not better, at least in the near future.
“As such, it might actually be advisable for the election to be held soonest, before voter sentiments sour even more in tandem with the worsening economy,” he said today.
In an interview with Japanese news agency Nikkei Asia earlier this week, Ismail Sabri had cited spiralling food prices and rising cost of living as among the key reasons why it is not ideal to hold the election anytime soon.
His remark, however, does not appear to be supported by his party colleagues, with both Umno president Datuk Seri Ahmad Zahid Hamidi and former prime minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak pressing for the polls to be held soonest.
Speaking at the BN convention yesterday, Najib said that the current inflation does not justify delaying the election, noting that each inflationary cycle could last up to three years, rendering the postponement to next year futile.
In the same event, Zahid rallied thousands of delegates present to pressure Ismail Sabri to dissolve Parliament as soon as possible, saying the coalition is ready and that he trusts the latter to do the right thing.
While the election date has become an increasingly contentious issue between the two Umno camps, Oh does not believe this will lead to Ismail Sabri falling out with the party’s mainstream faction led by the president.
“This is because he has yet to build up sizable support within Umno as a base for tussling with the mainstream group.”
Key factors backing early election push
Universiti Utara Malaysia’s Prof Mohd Azizuddin Mohd Sani said several key factors could see BN suffering another surprise general election defeat if the poll is postponed.
For one, he said, there is a bigger risk certain events could unfold between now and then that will weaken the coalition, while the opposition will also get more time to strengthen their own parties.
Additionally, he warned that this additional period could also potentially see the registration of more youth typically aligned to Pakatan Harapan as voters.
“On top of that, if Umno’s bid to postpone its own party polls to after the general election fails, this could serve as an even bigger internal problem.”
However, Azizuddin said triggering an election soon would not necessarily guarantee a win for BN, warning the ruling administration that overconfidence could cost them dearly.
He explained that while the momentum of recent state election victories in Johor and Melaka may be on BN’s side, it would be a different ball game at the federal level.
“A lot of factors could come into play. For instance, while they won two-thirds majorities in the state elections, the margin of victory in the seats was quite slim, while voter turnout was also very low.
“Now with no more Covid-19 restrictions in place, expect a much higher turnout. So, while momentum can be an indicator, Umno best not rely on that.”
Apart from this, Azizuddin said barring Umno, the other BN component parties – MCA, MIC, and Parti Bersatu Rakyat Sabah – are also not in their best shape, despite having shown recent improvements.
“If BN insists on pushing for a general election, I think it will all come down to how the coalition is able to step up its game within the next couple of months, establish a winning strategy and promote a fresh and new agenda for the public.” – The Vibes, June 2, 2022
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