KUALA LUMPUR – The so-called “green wave” may be playing on many pundits’ lips, and harped on by the Perikatan Nasional (PN) leadership, but it may still not be able to crash past the grand dyke of Umno in its bastion of Johor.
According to a political analyst, the stature of the federal unity government as well as the Umno-led state administration is rock-solid among Johoreans ahead of the two by-elections in the state next month.
Universiti Utara Malaysia’s (UUM) Prof Ahmad Martadha Mohamed said that the green wave, meant to signify the rising electoral clout of PN and especially its component party PAS, may not reach Johor.
“This is because traditionally Johor is the birthplace of Umno and is the party’s stronghold,” he said in comments made to Getaran, The Vibes’ Bahasa Malaysia sister portal.
“At the same time, we know that the support of the non-Malay community for the unity government that will contest is also strong there,” he said, referring to the federal administration ruled by the alliance of Pakatan Harapan (PH) and the Umno-led Barisan Nasional (BN).
“We saw the same thing when Bersatu found it difficult to win in Johor during the last state election there.”
He stressed that PN-component Bersatu’s candidates could not win in constituencies where they had come up against Umno. In contrast, some of these same figures had won the seats when they were previously in Umno.
The by-elections for the Pulai parliamentary seat and the Simpang Jeram state seat on September 9 are necessitated by the death of Datuk Seri Salahuddin Ayub, who held both seats, on July 23.
Salahuddin, who was domestic trade and cost of living minister, was also deputy president of Amanah, a PH component.
Palace’s relationship with local Umno leadership
Martadha, who is UUM’s deputy vice-chancellor, stated this when asked to comment on the development of the political phenomenon seen in the last six-state elections on August 12 when PN managed to win a greater number of seats than before.
He said that the majority of the people of Johor are voters with robust enthusiasm and loyalty.
In fact, the influence of the Johor palace is also seen as one of the factors in the state having a solid and lasting affinity with Umno.
“We have to look at the lineage of Umno in Johor. In the context of the party, they are quite united and we see their Johor leadership often working with the palace.
“The voice of the Malay voters is greatly influenced by the state Umno leadership which is also supported by the palace leadership,” he said.
Commenting further, he said that the influence of the palace in Johor is much stronger than that in other states. The state’s royal family is also viewed as being exceptionally close to the common people.
“Whatever changes happen in Johor, we often see that they are in line with the orders of the sultan (Sultan Ibrahim Sultan Iskandar). For example, the term ‘Bangsa Johor’ (which he promoted) is the pride of the people of the state,” Martadha said.
Beneficial PH-BN cooperation
Recently, Umno vice-president Datuk Seri Mohamed Khaled Nordin expressed confidence that the green wave that occurred in the six state elections will not hit Johor.
In fact, he also stressed that the Amanah candidates contesting on behalf of PH are able to defend the two seats for the party, as a result of the good cooperation between PH and BN.
PH has named Johor Amanah vice-chairman Suhaizan Kaiat as its candidate for Pulai while Nazri Abdul Rahman was given the mandate to vie for Simpang Jeram.
In the 15th general election last November, Salahuddin had won Pulai with a majority of 33,174 votes, drawing 64,900 votes, ahead of BN candidate Datuk Nur Jazlan Mohamed (31,726 votes) and PN’s Loh Kah Yong (20,677).
He also defended Simpang Jeram in the Johor election in March last year by garnering 8,749 votes against PN’s Zarul Salleh (6,350 votes), BN’s Lokman Md Don (6,062 votes) and Pejuang’s Mahaizal Mahmor (208 votes).
Early voting for the by-elections will be held on September 5, while polling day has been set for September 9. Candidates will have a period of 14 days to campaign. – The Vibes, August 29, 2023
