GEORGE TOWN – The ruling unity alliance’s twin by-election victories in Johor last weekend is at best a bittersweet outcome because it has unfortunately revealed that Pakatan Harapan continues to suffer from a loss of support, and it also shows the economy is not fully healed.
Political scientist Prof Ahmad Fauzi Abdul Hamid of Universiti Sains Malaysia (USM) said that the low-voter turnout is the starkest indication that the rebound of the economy is not progressing as well as it should.
It is the clearest indication before the 16th general election that the unity government of Pakatan Harapan-Barisan Nasional (PH-BN), and its Sabah as well as Sarawak political allies, need to work harder to restore support and to ensure that growth generated can trickle down to all strata of society, said the academic.
Despite data indicating growth, jobs creation and a gradual decline of inflation, the ringgit shows weakness and society is suffering rising living costs. These contributed to reasons outstation voters did not bother to return to vote, said Fauzi in an interview.
“I think PH is doing a poor job in convincing the people that the economy is improving.”
The turnout for the Pulai parliamentary by-election was low at 47%, whereas at Simpang Jeram state seat, it was better but still largely unimpressive at 60%. To be fair, the Election Commission had attributed the low numbers to rough weather on Saturday.
Both by-elections were called following the sudden death of its incumbent, Amanah deputy president Datuk Seri Salahuddin Ayub, who was then the domestic trade and cost of living minister.
“If the economy is great, outstation voters would have taken the trouble to journey back and vote. And I think the people will come back to vote to support the unity government if the economy is faring well,” he said.
Usually, a high-voter turnout favours the incumbents because voters generally believe that the present government is responsible for the economic upturn, he said.
Definite swing of voters to PN
On the upside, Fauzi believes that the double win creates some buffer for the ruling unity coalition, which has been on the defensive following the disappointing showing in the six state elections where its voter support volume diminished last month.
Then there is the perceived interference in the judiciary, especially after Deputy Prime Minister Datuk Seri Ahmad Zahid Hamidi won a conditional discharge over graft charges in a Kuala Lumpur High Court.
Zahid was granted a discharge not amounting to an acquittal (DNAA) on 47 charges involving corruption, criminal breach of trust (CBT), and money laundering, but the ruling sparked controversy with many quarters accusing the judiciary of caving in to political pressure.
“The inability of the government to convince the people that there was no interference in the judiciary and the low-voter turnout were seen as disadvantages to PH-BN,” Fauzi said.
But there was enough support as well as the late Salahuddin’s legacy to power PH-BN to the twin victories in Johor, he added.
However, there are causes for concern in view that there is a definite swing to the opposition (Perikatan Nasional) with some 9,000 voters shifting support.
“It is a significant figure as 9,000 have changed allegiances in a matter of months. If this trend continues in the next four years, it means that PH would lose up to 36,000 voters,” he said.
He said that analysts study voting trends as an indication to plan ahead, so the continued loss of support is a factor which PH-BN needs to pay close attention to.
“The ruling coalition must work harder to arrest such trends. There is perhaps a need to change how it communicates its successes or weaknesses to the public.”
Meanwhile, Fauzi’s USM colleague Prof Datuk Sivamurugan Pandian said that despite a low turnout, the affiliation to party politics remains strong in Johor.
“There was a strong effort by both PH and BN to woo their supporters to vote,” he said.
The wins give moral legitimacy for the unity government, while PN will have to study why they failed to make inroads into Johor, he said. – The Vibes, September 12, 2023
