MALAYSIAN politics has entered a new and challenging phase.
On March 4, 2021, exactly five years after the Citizens’ Declaration realignment, two parties in the ruling Perikatan Nasional coalition, namely Bersatu and Umno, officially severed ties and vowed to contest each other in the next general election.
As a result of the 2016 realignment between Umno’s dissidents, particularly Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad and those from parties previously in the opposition, especially DAP’s Lim Kit Siang, the decaying and corrupt one-party state under former prime minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak fell on May 9, 2018.
In a normal democracy, when a governing party loses an election, the discredited leaders step aside for renewal. New leaders play the role of a constructive opposition with the aim of winning the next election.
But Najib and president Datuk Seri Ahmad Zahid Hamidi refused to let go. From October 2018 onwards, Umno, together with PAS, launched a campaign to burn the house down. The then-Pakatan Harapan foreign minister Datuk Seri Saifuddin Abdullah pushed for the ratification of Icerd, which was first seized upon by self-styled progressive Khairy Jamaluddin, who alleged that the move was anti-Malay. A massive demonstration on December 8, 2018 cemented the alliance between Umno and PAS, formally established in October 2019.
The aim was to seize power midway, and not to win an election. To win an election, one needs to be able to win across a multi-ethnic population. A Malay-only alliance is not going to be electorally viable, a fact I told Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin on February 5, 2020, my last meeting with him.
The official break on March 4 between Bersatu and Umno is an earthquake that will have multiple aftershocks.
First, Umno will break internally.
Umno is now in a precarious, yet interesting position. I have long argued that the moment Umno lost power in 2018, the party should have looked at Indonesia’s Golkar for ideas to survive in the long haul. Golkar continues to be relevant, winning about 1/5 of the votes in all the elections post-reformasi. Umno will have to first disavow its one-party “taikor” (big brother) mentality, which imagines that it has the birthright to rule. Umno has to learn to compete in a normal democracy without the aid of government machinery and cash.
Anyway, now that Bersatu is ready to use the full weight of the state apparatus to finish off Umno, Umno now enters a civil war to determine who is to control the party. Those who support Muhyiddin will want to remove those against him, and if pro-Muhyiddin leaders Datuk Seri Hishammuddin Hussein and Annuar Musa prevail, Umno as a brand will be Muhyiddin’s loyal servant and there will be an exodus of losers.
However, it is most likely that those who are against Muhyiddin will prevail. Among those who are against Muhyiddin are leaders like Najib, Zahid, and an electorally toxic court cluster unaccepted by the Malay middle ground. Those who are anti-Bersatu will have to decide who will be the face to lead Umno into the next general election when it has to campaign as an opposition party without the aid of government machinery, and less cash compared to its time in power.
Second, PAS will have to choose.
My bet is that, as long as Datuk Seri Hadi Awang is still around, most of PAS’ top leaders will stick with Muhyiddin, though there are some who continue to press for collaboration with Umno in futility. Since the exodus of the progressives in 2015, PAS has had no more “assets” to realistically compete in states outside Kelantan, Terengganu, Kedah, and Perlis. Therefore, the current PAS leadership is only seeking dominance in Kelantan, Terengganu, and Kedah. Umno has been a permanent rival of PAS in these states for the past 60 years, yet Bersatu has practically no bases there. What this means is that Bersatu could concede almost the all seats in Kelantan, Terengganu, and Kedah to PAS. In PAS’ calculus, as long as the party could win around 30 parliamentary seats, it would be a kingmaker in any government.
The risk is that in a straight fight with Umno in Kelantan, PAS, which has governed Kelantan since 1990, may lose power and thus rendering the whole kingmaker strategy defective. In the 2018 general election, PAS was campaigning in Kelantan against Najib’s grand corruption, and many of the votes PAS received were from outstation voters who went home to cast their protest votes against Najib.
If the Malay swing voters’ anger is now against Muhyiddin, PAS is tying its fate to a sinking ship. There will be many confused PAS members and supporters, some of whom would jump off the sinking ship to find sanity.
Third, Bersatu is akin to a dying patient on life support but with a machine gun in hand and tons of gold by the hospital bed.
The PN government is now in the danger zone Najib’s government was in, back in the last quarter of 2017. Nothing it does will gain any traction anymore. The swing voters have formed the opinion that it is the government that they would want to get rid of. The question is then, how?
While no swing voters will vote for PN, compared to Najib in 2018, Perikatan has an added obstacle: it has no base vote, whereas Najib’s Umno still won a sizable one-third of the votes cast.
What will Bersatu do? The ruling party has power and money. It has no love from the voters. The danger is that the party would use all the means available to the incumbent government to continue its rule. Umno may have to anticipate being banned. There will be more buying of elected reps. The emergency may be prolonged. More opposition figures will be charged in courts on flimsy charges.
Malaysia will have to brace for the aftershocks of March 4, 2021 but like any earthquakes, it is also an opportunity to rebuild, better. – The Vibes, March 5, 2021
Liew Chin Tong is a senator in the Dewan Negara, and was the deputy defence minister from July 17, 2018 to February 24, 2020
