AN elementary principle of strategic foresight and future studies practice states that the least likely future is one in which nothing changes.
The Perikatan Nasional government’s National Recovery Plan has been panned across the board for a variety of good reasons, but in a lot of the politically motivated rhetoric, I fear that the flaws in the underlying philosophy behind the PN government are being left unexamined. While indeed, the National Recovery Plan is not really a plan but rather a rubric, is needlessly nationalised (Covid-19 cares not for the borders men draw in the sand, and can be navigated only via a cluster-busting approach), and has a low chance of actually seeing to a proper recovery, it confounds itself less in the details, which leave much to be desired, and more in the PN government’s fall for the extended present.
The extended present is often the status quo, that intoxicating notion that things will continue as they always have. In the extended present, trends are destiny, and while minimal change is permitted, it is beholden to a simplistic calculus that a half-cocked accountant can figure out and prepare for with only a slight margin of error for irregularities. A business that makes a strategic plan within the mindset of the extended present will not survive its first five-year plan. The farmer, the hospital administrator, the manufacturer, the banker, and the school administrator are not only unable to compete from the view of the extended present, but they will be left behind as the world moves on. Hubris is the undoing of those beholden to the extended present.
The extended present is understandably appealing to Malaysia, where the weather rarely changes and one quickly comes to understand that rain is regular, and one even comes to expect that it could arrive at any time, and aside from flooding, this particular geography is not prone, at least at this moment of climate’s onward change, to natural disasters. The relatively static climate mixed with a laundry list of bastardised philosophies, most recently that of Malaysia Boleh!, and the extended present seem almost natural.
But, the extended present mentality was incapable of seeing a pandemic that could bring the world to a grinding halt. The extended present mentality allowed the 1Malaysia Development Bhd fiasco to become the world’s worst financial scandal. The extended present also led to an addiction to development that is solely bent on developing, losing sight of the people it seeks to uplift, and in fact, pushing them further down into the depths of poverty (even if we change the definition, it does not change the fact). The extended present took a rising tiger and revealed it for a busted flush. And now, that tiger chases its own tail, locking down and opening up in a Sisyphean roller coaster that is burning through the nation’s wealth and the people’s will.
The first step to break out of the extended present is to note what is taken for granted. Assume that things may not continue as they always have. Anticipate and prepare for emerging disruptions, which, for those who are looking, always hover just under the radar until the opportunity presents itself for chaos to throw the whole system into disarray. This requires a good deal of thought, but also, a habit of reiteration, because the ways in which we think may be flawed themselves as the future changes around us.
Technology will always advance, and this will require the constant adaptation of training, but without forethought, the latest model will come out, and yet, the old problems persist. Algorithms are racist because they are made by those who haven’t dealt with their biases; social media still flings fake news just as spoken gossip used to, because a vigilance has not been instilled in society. The thinking needed can be quite sophisticated, and it also requires imagination and creativity. Otherwise, we cannot get out of what we cannot think beyond. Think outside the box or be trapped within it.
For a plan to have any hope of success in these troubling times, it must be more than its milestones. The plan also needs to anticipate chaos. The most telling pledge to the extended present is the National Recovery Plan’s reliance on vaccination. While vaccination is globally the best avenue to opening up, a proper plan will presume the roll-out to not be smooth, and present ideas for how this will be dealt with. Not to mention, there is an assumption, an asinine ignorance, that the vaccine roll-out is going smoothly, which grammar school maths reveals is not the case.
Aside from this easily correctable adjustment, the whole drive of this plan is unbalanced. Its assessment mechanism puts all the impetus, more so, all the blame, on the people’s ability to be subservient and will themselves from getting sick. A recovery will require the empowerment and agency of the whole of society, where everyone is at stake for blame, but also to reap the benefits. This all begins with forging a plan that takes stock of the data, the experts, and the people. Otherwise, the plan is doomed to fail as the PN government self-administers the blinders of the extended present.
This should begin with reopening Parliament, where, in a functioning democracy, the people elect their peers to plan on their behalf, while keeping their interests at heart. But this is only the start. The government cannot see its people as faceless masses needing to be corralled from one milestone to the next, but a people with capable agency, voting power, and a desire for a better tomorrow. – The Vibes, June 19, 2021
C. Scott Jordan is executive assistant director of the Centre for Postnormal Policy and Futures Studies
