THE easing of tensions in the Strait of Hormuz following a peace agreement between the United States and Iran has fundamentally altered the global investment landscape, with investors expected to pivot from commodity-driven defensive positions towards Malaysia's domestic growth opportunities, according to BIMB Securities Research.
The research house said the memorandum of understanding (MoU), signed on 17 June, marks a transition from markets dominated by geopolitical uncertainty to a more stable environment, allowing investors to refocus on structural economic growth themes.
BIMB Securities Research analyst Redza Rahman said the development is expected to reduce pressure on global energy prices while strengthening Malaysia's medium- and long-term economic outlook.
He noted that the 110-day Strait of Hormuz conflict had disrupted almost 20 per cent of global oil supplies, driving Brent crude prices above US$120 per barrel and intensifying concerns over a global economic slowdown.
"Under the MoU, the United States agreed to gradually lift maritime sanctions over a 30-day period, while Iran will remove technical and military barriers to restore shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
"Commercial vessels will also be permitted to transit the strait without any transit charges for 60 days.
"As part of efforts to normalise bilateral relations, the United States also agreed to grant selected exemptions for Iranian petroleum exports and release the country's frozen assets, subject to Tehran's commitment not to develop nuclear weapons and to comply with uranium stockpile reduction monitored by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)," he said in a research note.
Redza said the United States and its regional partners are also prepared to support Iran's economic recovery through a reconstruction and development programme worth at least US$300 billion, provided comprehensive negotiations are successfully concluded.
He said the positive developments have prompted capital markets to reassess investment strategies, moving away from war-related commodity hedges towards companies positioned to benefit from long-term domestic economic expansion.
"Capital markets are now reassessing their positioning from war-hedging themes to structural growth, with the domestic construction and digital sectors serving as natural hedges against geopolitical uncertainty," he said.
Redza said investors are now focusing on the implementation of Malaysia's 13th Malaysia Plan (RMK13) and the rapid expansion of hyperscale data centre projects, both of which are expected to become major drivers of the country's economic growth over the medium and long term.
He added that companies with strong domestic order books, particularly those involved in infrastructure projects such as the Rapid Transit System (RTS), data centre expansion and logistics hubs, are likely to prove more resilient due to their limited exposure to external risks.
However, BIMB Securities Research cautioned that the peace process remains vulnerable, estimating a 35 per cent probability that negotiations could fail, particularly if fresh regional conflicts emerge or disputes arise over compliance with nuclear commitments.
The firm said reports by the International Atomic Energy Agency on Iran's uranium reduction programme will be a critical indicator of the agreement's durability, warning that any breach could result in sanctions relief being withdrawn and renewed market volatility.
"Accordingly, the firm recommends a 'Defensive Barbell' investment strategy to balance potential returns and risks during the 60-day negotiation period.
"Under this approach, 35 per cent of the portfolio should be allocated to protective assets, including holdings in Hibiscus Petroleum Bhd as a hedge against any renewed surge in oil prices.
"Meanwhile, the remaining 65 per cent should be invested in companies benefiting from domestic growth, particularly within the construction, utilities and digital infrastructure sectors.
"For the growth segment, investors may focus on companies with substantial domestic contracts such as Sunway Construction, alongside essential service providers including Telekom Malaysia and Tenaga Nasional, which generate more defensive earnings," he said.
BIMB Securities Research said disciplined investing and a focus on companies with strong business fundamentals would remain the most effective strategy for navigating any geopolitical uncertainties that may arise while peace negotiations continue. - June 21, 2026
_director_Datuk_M._Kumar.jpg)
