THE capture of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro has been widely welcomed by supporters of US President Donald Trump, who see the operation as a rare example of decisive action delivering a quick result.
However, political analysts and a small but vocal group of conservative critics warn that enthusiasm could fade rapidly if Washington’s role in Venezuela becomes prolonged or costly.
Reuters reported on Monday that many figures aligned with Trump’s Make America Great Again (MAGA) movement have framed Maduro’s detention as a clean and limited success, distinct from the long wars in Afghanistan and Iraq that Trump has repeatedly condemned.
That support has held even after Trump said the United States would temporarily “run” Venezuela and seek to exploit its oil reserves, raising the prospect of an open-ended commitment abroad.
For now, analysts say, Trump’s base appears willing to give him the benefit of the doubt.
“This is too recent for there to be significant MAGA-base push back,” said Joshua Wilson, a professor of political science at the University of Denver.
“There are many questions about how things will develop, and so this could become another test of Trump’s ability to frame events and control his base.”
The operation comes at a sensitive moment politically. A Reuters/Ipsos poll last month found that just 39% of US adults approved of Trump’s performance, with much of the discontent linked to the economy.
History suggests any political boost from military action is likely to be fleeting.
“If it goes well, it will largely be forgotten, I suspect, by the time of the midterms,” said Matthew Wilson, a political science professor at Southern Methodist University. “If it goes poorly, it will be an albatross.”
Control of Congress is at stake in November’s midterm elections, amplifying the political risk. The last comparable US effort to remove a Latin American leader was the 1989 invasion of Panama that toppled Manuel Noriega.
That operation, followed by the 1991 Gulf War, bolstered President George H W Bush’s standing only briefly; he went on to lose re-election in 1992, largely because of economic concerns.
Criticism from left and right
Democrats have sharply criticised the Trump administration’s actions, arguing they were ill-judged and potentially unlawful because they were carried out without congressional approval.
Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer warned that Trump risked dragging the United States “into another costly foreign war”.
That criticism has been echoed by a handful of conservatives. Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene, once a staunch Trump ally, said Maduro’s arrest contradicted Trump’s 2024 campaign pledge to avoid foreign conflicts.
“This is the same Washington playbook that we are so sick and tired of that doesn’t serve the American people,” she said on NBC’s Meet the Press.
Right-wing podcaster Candace Owens also condemned the operation, writing on X that the CIA had staged “another hostile takeover of a country at the behest of a globalist psychopaths [sic]”.
Yet such views remain in the minority. Many prominent voices in the MAGA movement have either supported the action or chosen not to comment publicly. Steve Bannon, a former Trump aide, praised the raid as “bold and brilliant” on his podcast, reflecting a hawkish mood among much of the president’s base.
Administration officials have sought to portray the operation not as a war but as a law enforcement action against Maduro, who faces US drug charges and is due in court in New York.
Some conservative influencers have also embraced Trump’s broader argument that the United States must reassert dominance in the Western Hemisphere.
Laura Loomer, a right-wing activist, argued on social media that Washington should tap Venezuela’s oil reserves rather than allow rivals such as Iran, China, Russia and Cuba to benefit.
“We will exert our power and take the oil and financially starve the axis of evil,” she wrote on X, criticising Republican Representative Thomas Massie for questioning the legal basis of the strikes.
Other Republicans offered more cautious backing. Nikki Haley, Trump’s former rival for the 2024 nomination, called Maduro a “brutal socialist dictator” and said Venezuelans “deserve freedom”.
Senator Rand Paul, a long-time critic of overseas interventions, warned that “time will tell if regime change in Venezuela is successful without significant monetary or human cost”.
Testing MAGA loyalty
Experts caution against viewing the MAGA movement as purely isolationist. Matt McManus, a political science professor at Spelman College, noted that Trump supporters have often backed shows of force, including US strikes on Iranian nuclear sites and threats against adversaries during Trump’s first term.
“MAGAdom has never really been defined by a great concern for ideological consistency,” McManus said. “It very much takes its cues from the leading figures… And of course, right now, Trump is signaling very heavily that Venezuelan intervention is what’s good for America.”
Still, McManus and others agree that a prolonged US presence in Venezuela would pose a serious test of Trump’s authority over his party and movement, particularly if American troops are deployed, something the president has not ruled out.
“I guess Venezuela will be the acid test that answers the question is MAGA whatever Donald Trump says it is,” said Dante Scala, a political science professor at the University of New Hampshire. - January 5, 2025
