FITCH Ratings has maintained its deteriorating outlook for the global shipping sector, warning that geopolitical instability, protectionist policies and slowing economic conditions will continue to weigh heavily on industry performance.
The assessment was set out in its latest sector Outlook report released recently.
Fitch said the sector would be hit by lower GDP growth across most major economies in 2026 compared with 2025, with further downside risks emerging should financial markets undergo a correction.
A major event risk, it added, lies in the potential resumption of Red Sea transits, which could sharply reduce tonne-mile demand across multiple shipping segments. However, the agency said visibility on whether such a shift will occur remains limited.
Trade tensions and tariff disputes have already dampened expectations for container volume growth through 2025 and 2026.
Fitch noted that “the medium-term impact from protectionist measures remains difficult to quantify but should be negative overall”.
It added that rising protectionism could reshape trade flows and depress demand for certain high-margin or strategic products, although new trade routes could strengthen and partially offset the declines in lanes affected by tariffs.
The agency expects container shipping performance to weaken significantly in 2026. Lower freight rates, driven by an increasingly unbalanced supply-demand environment, are forecast to erode profitability across the segment.
Tanker shipping, however, is projected to remain robust, particularly crude tankers, supported by stronger end-user demand and growth in tonne-miles.
Dry bulk fundamentals are expected to remain weak but broadly stable year on year, while other segments — including LNG carriers and vehicle carriers — are set to experience relatively steady performance.
Fitch noted a moderate rise in vessel order books across shipping segments, though scrappage rates remain low, contributing to a gradual increase in overall fleet capacity.
The International Maritime Organisation’s forthcoming Net Zero framework, which is yet to be formally approved, is expected to intensify cost pressures on operators over the medium term.
Fitch cautioned that it is still unclear how effectively shipping companies will be able to pass through such heightened costs to customers. - December 9, 2025
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