THE world could be heading towards its strongest El Nino in more than a century, with sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific forecast to reach an “unheard of” level and trigger widespread disruption to global weather patterns.
Adam Scaife, head of long-range forecasting at Britain’s Met Office, said the climate phenomenon could peak at more than 3°C above the baseline, describing the projected event as unprecedented.
“We are expecting the biggest El Nino for over a century, peaking at something over 3 degrees. That is unheard of in modern climate records,” Scaife told the BBC.
He said the intensity of the signal in current forecasts was unlike anything he had previously observed.
“It is an unprecedented event. I have never seen an El Nino signal this intense in our forecasts,” he said.
El Nino is declared when sea surface temperatures in the tropical eastern Pacific rise at least 0.5°C above the baseline average. The phenomenon can alter global wind patterns, atmospheric pressure and rainfall, while contributing to higher global temperatures.
Scaife said anomalous warmth in the region was already approaching 2°C and warned that the strongest effects were expected across tropical regions.
“We expect really severe droughts in places like South America and the West Pacific,” he said.
Temperatures in the region are currently about 2.6°C above a rolling 30-year average, according to the Climate Brink dashboard.
Scaife stressed that the implications would extend well beyond short-term weather fluctuations, with prolonged changes potentially affecting agriculture, food supplies and wider food security.
“These are not short-term weather forecasts. We’re talking about really long-term, persistent conditions here. There are well-known impacts on other systems including food, food security,” said Scaife, a physicist specialising in climate modelling.
The effects could also be felt in Britain, where the Met Office expects the phenomenon to bring increased rainfall and stormier conditions during the autumn, particularly around November.
The warning comes as scientists and forecasters monitor the developing Pacific warming event for its potential to amplify extreme weather across several regions, underscoring the wider climate risks associated with an unusually intense El Nino. - August 21, 2026
