The Sungai Bakap by-election in Penang will serve to indicate whether the "green wave" continues to enjoy momentum in the Malay heartland since the elections in four states eight months ago.
Universiti Sains Malaysia political scientist Prof Datuk Dr Sivamurugan Pandian said wave could still be evident because the state elections were less than a year ago.
“The momentum will likely persist, especially with the public's growing concern over living costs and the various promises that have gone unfulfilled. But as this is a by-election, the circumstances are different,” said Sivamurugan.
He was not certain if PAS could get the young people to return to Sungai Bakap to vote. Many in the semi-rural constituency are employed in the cities.
A high voter turnout could tip the scales in PAS’ favour like it did in the last polls.
Some of the issues facing the voters are local so a strong candidate is needed, Sivamurugan said.
Pakatan Harapan (PH) and opposition Perikatan Nasional (PN) could start on equal footing but PAS could have an edge as it is the incumbent, he said.
Sungai Bakap borders Kedah, which is a PAS heartland. The Islamist party has also taken over Perlis while maintaining its dominance in Kelantan and Terengganu.
Nomination is on Saturday while polling is July 6, giving the opponents 14 days to campaign.
Muda is considering joining he fray.
PH is represented by teacher Joohari Ariffin, 60, while PN the incumbent is represented by businessman Abidin Ismail, former personal assistant to the late PAS Sungai Bakap assemblyman Nor Zamri Latiff.
The demographics indicate that the battle is largely for the Malay vote. The largest community in the seat makes up 59.36% of voters, Chinese 22.54%, Indians 17.39%, and other minorities 0.71%.
It is a typical Malaysian seat, in other words, said lawyer S. Raveentharan.
Permatang Pauh MP Muhammad Fawwaz Mohamad Jan of PAS said inflation is expected to take centrestage on the campaign trail.
Economic Minister Rafizi Ramli had explained that the government had removed the blanket diesel subsidy and replaced it with a targeted model ahead of the Sungai Bakap by-election because it was important to fix the economy even at the risk of losing votes.
Rafizi said public debt remained at RM1.3 trillion so austerity measures were needed to ensure the country could grow and bring prosperity to more people.
Fawwaz said the effects of the removal of the diesel subsidy were yet to be fully felt but that PAS would tell the voters that their purchasing power had shrunk.
Raveentharan said the diesel subsidy could be construed as a form of reform but what the public wanted was the reforming of enforcement agencies such as customs, police, and immigration.
The slow pace of reform efforts could feature in the campaign for Sungai Bakap, he said.
The latest voter registration show there are 39,279 voters in the constituency, 39,222 of whom are regular voters and 57, police personnel. – June 18, 2024.
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