DAP may find itself in the same political situation its rivals endured in the 1980s to 1990s, when voters were selective in supporting them by splitting their votes.
At that time, voters, mostly the Chinese, split their votes between MCA, Gerakan and DAP, especially in the urban states of Selangor, Negeri Sembilan, Malacca and Penang.
The voters would vote for MCA and Gerakan in the state elections, but for parliamentary seats, they opted for DAP, said Universiti Sains Malaysia (USM) political scientist Datuk Dr Sivamurugan Pandian.
Through such an arrangement, DAP icons such as Tan Sri Lim Kit Siang, the late Datuk Seri Karpal Singh and the late Chen Man Hin, managed to hang on to their parliamentary seats despite the party failing to gain any control of state governments.
"Now perhaps, we may see a similar trend that voters would support MCA or Gerakan in the state, but in Parliament, they would vote for DAP. The best of all worlds."
Sivamurugan made this observation after analysing result from the Johor state election, where Barisan Nasional (BN) won 48 out of the 56 state seats.
And now in Negri Sembilan, where campaigning for the 36 state seats enters the second week, Sivamurugan contended that DAP is also facing a tough battle in that state.
It remains to be seen what happens in Negri Sembilan, but DAP is facing a tougher battle to be re-elected for the first time in close to two decades, namely because of its own internal rift and the perceived notion of voters that its coalition of Pakatan Harapan (PH) is slow to respond to the call for reforms.
His academic comrade, James Chin, a political analyst and Professor of Asian Studies at the University of Tasmania, said that there is a difference between Johor and Negeri Sembilan, but admitted that the socialist party is facing a tough electoral battle ahead.
In Negeri Sembilan, DAP is seen to be part of the PH coalition working to defend the royal palace, but in Johor, it was apparent that the royalty there preferred BN.
The machinery for DAP is stronger in Negeri Sembilan compared to Johor, so Chin expects the outcome there to be different from Johor.
"We see it is a fight between DAP and BN. PKR and Parti Amanah Nasional are seen to be weak in Negeri Sembilan," said Chin.
But if BN gets the support of the opposition Perikatan Nasional (PN) through PAS, the former strong coalition may yet grab the state from PH, said Chin.
Polling for the state is on Saturday, August 1. - July 27, 2026.
