Umno returns to BN route for GE15

KUALA LUMPUR – The Umno General Assembly 2020, which concluded last night, saw the party consolidate its position going into the 15th general election (GE15) by leading Barisan Nasional into the polls. This has effectively left Bersatu to its fate and PAS in a quandary.

President Datuk Seri Ahmad Zahid Hamidi’s declaration that Umno will work with only fellow BN component parties and look into possible cooperation with others after the polls has placed a great deal of clarity on the situation.

However, the announcement also raises questions about the directions the other parties will now have to take.

Singapore Institute of International Affairs senior fellow Oh Ei Sun told The Vibes that Umno has clearly indicated that it has had enough of playing second fiddle to Bersatu and will not likely repeat the scenario by aligning with DAP and PKR.

When asked about PAS’ direction following Umno’s decision, he said: “PAS has the long-term goal of making Malaysia and its society a thoroughly religious one.

“It is waiting to see which party – Bersatu or Umno – will better facilitate its religious agenda by, for example, adopting stringent and obviously religion-inspired laws and regulations.

“It is content with being a junior partner in a ruling coalition as long as its religious agenda is accommodated. As such, it is an attractive coalition partner to both Bersatu and Umno.”

At present, Umno and PAS are still on good terms through their Muafakat Nasional partnership.

However, calls by Umno members for PAS to state its stand have been met with silence from the Islamist party’s president Datuk Seri Abdul Hadi Awang.

Then, there is that positively perplexing tweet by PAS secretary-general Datuk Seri Takiyuddin Hassan yesterday, which reads: “I may have lost someone who didn’t love me, but you lost someone who truly loved you.”

This could well spell the end of the party’s cooperation with either Bersatu or Umno.

On Bersatu’s plans, Oh said the Umno splinter will have to head into GE15 with its motley crew of other Perikatan Nasional component parties.

However, he added, they may have difficulty breaking through voters who, in the last GEs, have chosen between BN and Pakatan Harapan, or its predecessor Pakatan Rakyat.

“It remains to be seen how much inroads all of them can make in their respective constituencies, which have long been divided between BN and PH.”

Based on the latest development, Oh said all three major coalitions – BN, PN and PH – will head into the polls on their own, with possible cooperation happening only afterwards.

“PH will still win its bulk of seats, albeit slightly reduced in numbers,” he predicted.

Independent political analyst Khoo Kay Peng told The Vibes that Umno’s decision reflects its pedigree – it will not play second fiddle to another Malay party.

“We have to go back to the Gerakan-MCA era in the late 60s and 70s, when the late Tun Dr Lim Chong Eu helmed Gerakan and Penang.

“As Lim was a former MCA president, MCA could never see eye to eye with Gerakan on Chinese-party dominance despite being under BN.

“It is similar where Umno is concerned; it knows that it is the alpha, the dominant Malay party, and refuses to be in a secondary role forever.”

Khoo said PAS will likely take a less confrontational route, with its support tipping towards Bersatu as conducting seat negotiations will be easier than with Umno.

He also stressed that three-cornered fights cannot be avoided at this juncture.

(Datuk Seri) Anwar (Ibrahim) does not seem to wield the full power in the (PH) coalition.

“I expect BN to contest under its tried-and-tested traditional format.

“It won’t be difficult for it to seek alliances with the Sabah and Sarawak governments after the polls. Similarly, this could be said of PN, but less likely with PH, depending on the election outcome.”

On PH’s direction, especially with regards to PKR’s recent flirtations with Umno, Khoo opined that the Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim-led coalition has wasted a lot of time over that option, and instead should start rallying itself together by correcting its weaknesses and solidifying alliances with Warisan and other parties.

“Unfortunately, given that sections of Amanah and DAP are still pursuing the option of former prime minister Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad (to lead them), Anwar does not seem to wield the full power in the coalition.

“PH needs to strongly convince its voter base that it admits its weaknesses and assures it will not repeat past mistakes.” – The Vibes, March 29, 2021