KUALA LUMPUR – Of late, there have been rumours among political circles of a possible fracture within the Barisan Nasional (BN) coalition, with speculation rife that MCA, MIC and PBRS are considering leaving the coalition for the Bersatu-led Perikatan Nasional (PN).
DAP Youth chief Howard Lee has been actively posting on Facebook, claiming that “MCA and MIC have a great deal more to gain with PN, Bersatu and (Tan Sri) Muhyiddin (Yassin) as they are the ones holding the purse strings”.
The Pasir Pinji assemblyman said this could be the reason that recent BN supreme council meetings were aborted at the very last minute, as MCA and MIC chose to not show up.
The latest no-show by Umno’s allies was last night, where BN leaders were supposed to meet at PWTC for a pow-wow to chart the coalition’s future, particularly whether to go at the general election on its own.
However, the meeting was cancelled and Astro Awani reported that the reason was due to MIC president Tan Sri S.A Vigneswaran not showing up because he fell ill.
The possible reason of the unhappiness among BN component parties could lie with Umno being the “elder brother”, steamrolling decisions without consulting its allies.
This was reflected in Umno’s recent annual general assembly a couple of weeks ago with the delegates attacking Bersatu while Umno president Datuk Seri Ahmad Zahid Hamidi took a hard-line stance in his winding-up speech – declaring Umno would not work with Pakatan Harapan’s (PH) PKR president Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim and DAP as well as Bersatu.
However, despite allegations and MIC’s apparently open rebuke against Umno yesterday, MCA Youth said it will remain with Umno and the BN coalition.
“We are still with BN and Umno. There will be a BN supreme council meeting to decide the move (to leave PN) and other collaborations. Officially, yes, we are still with BN,” MCA Youth chief Nicole Wong told The Vibes.
However, when asked about yesterday’s cancellation, Wong said she was not involved in the meeting and did not know anything about it.
MCA, MIC snubs may force Umno to ally with PH
Independent political analyst Khoo Kay Peng told The Vibes that the “dangerous game” that MCA and MIC are playing may send Umno into the arms of PH for its own political survival.
“Of course, that’s why MIC and MCA are doing that,” said Khoo when asked if the two parties have had enough of Umno’s dominance within their coalition.
“They are thinking that quite a number of leaders in Umno have baggage… stemming from the court cases involving Zahid and former president Datuk Seri Najib Razak, among others. They think Umno won’t be significant if they compete alone.
“What they are doing now is potentially pushing Umno to ally with PH. I don’t think PH will be reluctant to strike a post-election deal with Umno. And this is what PH wants. I don’t think DAP will reject that.”
He added that MCA and MIC are looking at who is the incumbent and political organisations often gravitate towards power, hoping that they can wrangle more seats in the general election.
He said MIC had sent strong signals when it also invited Bersatu president Muhyiddin to speak at its recent AGM, where Vigneswaran also declared his party will back PN.
Khoo, however, warned that this could be a mistake as the current federal administration under Bersatu did not come into power by winning an election, but through a series of defections.
“How will they (Bersatu) hold up at the next election? At the end of the day, political parties like Bersatu can plan but voters still call the shots.”
MCA, MIC the weak links in BN
Similar to Khoo’s perspective, Singapore Institute of International Affairs senior fellow Oh Ei Sun said Umno might not even bother with their erstwhile allies seeing that they have not snagged a large number of seats for BN since 2008.
MCA and MIC have been losing out on their respective voter base – Chinese and Indian voters – since 2008. Currently in the Dewan Rakyat, MCA has two seats and MIC holds a single seat compared to Umno’s 38.
“Umno nowadays is very much a roaring tiger after crouching for two years, and as such it is perhaps not too eager to try to woo its allies again as they don’t bring in ‘preys’ over the last decade or so.
“I frankly think MCA and MIC are no longer relevant partners for Umno nowadays, as they have consistently failed over more than a decade to deliver the bulk of their voter base.
“If anything, they often relied on Umno to yield them Malay-majority or significantly Malay seats that Umno could have contested and also Umno’s election machinery to canvass votes for them,” said Oh.
He said there is no love lost between Umno and the two parties but due to Bersatu’s desperation for all forms of support, even miniscule ones to shore up its electoral chances, MCA and MIC are attractive targets for Bersatu to co-opt.
He added that MCA and MIC’s main concern now is to remain as part of the ruling coalition to protect their official positions. Both parties are not keen on going back to being in opposition after they were booted out of the federal administration in 2018 for the first time since independence.
“So, if push comes to shove, they are likely to try hard to anchor themselves either in the present ruling coalition or in an emerging one. But such manoeuvring would entail political risks that they, of course, have to shoulder.
“A short-term calculation may see them remain in the present ruling coalition at least during the duration of the emergency, as the present government will not fall during an emergency even if Umno withdraws its support immediately.
“And such the emergency could be prolonged indefinitely if there is political will to effectuate it as such. But a longer-term view would perhaps instruct them to stick with Umno that remains the pre-eminent Malay party and a president with ironclad hold on many voters and constituencies, versus fledgling Bersatu that has yet to make its independent electoral imprint felt – at least federally.” – The Vibes, April 6, 2021
