MELAKA – As the curtains drew to a close on the Melaka polls yesterday, Barisan Nasional (BN) had the last laugh as it celebrated a landslide win – clinching 21 of the 28 seats up for grabs.
While the Datuk Seri Ahmad Zahid Hamidi-led outfit’s triumph was expected, its two-thirds majority victory exceeded supposition.
Meanwhile, two other political blocs – Pakatan Harapan (PH) and Perikatan Nasional (PN) – were left to lick their wounds after only winning five and two seats, respectively.
PH’s sound defeat, which included an annihilation for Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim’s PKR, is a severe blow to the opposition alliance.
Despite predictions that PN would suffer a wipeout, the outfit led by Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin – which stood between two giant coalitions – managed to maintain its 2018 two-seat win, claiming Sg Udang and Bemban.
So, what can we learn from the Melaka election?
BN thrives as lone wolf
Once ousted from power after over six decades of authoritarian rule, BN has successfully proven that it can now stand on its own two feet again after regaining the mantle of leadership in Melaka.
Garnering 75% of the state seats, it is evident that BN can thrive as a lone wolf and no longer needs to join forces with other political parties, namely PAS and PN, to resolve any political impasse.
After all, its ally-turned-foe PAS, which contested under the PN banner, failed miserably to win any of the eight seats it contested for.
However, if PN had contested hand-in-hand with BN, this would mean that the alliance anchored by Zahid would have been able to secure more seats in the recent election.
That being said, it would also signify that seat distribution would have to be allocated to Bersatu, PAS, and Gerakan.
The merger of two behemoth coalitions alone could potentially push fence-sitters to vote for the opposition instead – ultimately making PH the big winner.
1MDB 2018 political tsunami waning
Undeniably, PH was banking on the voter tsunami in 2018, which came on the heels of the 1Malaysia Development Bhd financial scandal, to recapture the state.
However, PH’s narrative of constantly harping on the scandal-plagued Zahid and former prime minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak is no longer working in the favour of the opposition, with many holding the view that it is a story from yesteryears.
The fence-sitters – who had previously always voted for BN, before switching sides to PH in the 2018 GE14 – have returned to BN’s fold.
This is despite infighting within Umno that triggered the snap polls and state BN chief Datuk Seri Ab Rauf Yusoh’s unpopularity among locals.
Could this spell trouble for PH in the much talked-about GE15, should this phenomenon spill over to the federal level?
Bersatu needs more than just Muhyiddin
It was apparent from the start of the election that PN was banking on its chairman Muhyiddin for any chances of victory, with his face being plastered on campaign materials much more so than those of its actual candidates.
Yet, this was not enough for the coalition to even pose any sort of a challenge to BN. That the coalition and linchpin Bersatu had only won two of the 28 seats is very telling.
Unlike Umno, Bersatu lags far behind in terms of machinery strength and grassroots support and would, hence, have had to rely on politics of personalities to make any inroads during elections.
But beyond Muhyiddin, Bersatu lacks likeable household names that are able to swing support in the party’s favour, in the same vein that Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad had for PH in 2018, when he to an extent assisted and contributed to the coalition’s victory at the federal level.
The majority of the public would scoff at the mere mention of Datuk Seri Mohamed Azmin Ali, Datuk Seri Hamzah Zainudin, Datuk Seri Ahmad Faizal Azumu, Datuk Seri Rina Harun, or Wan Ahmad Fayhsal Wan Ahmad Kamal – who are polarising figures at best, and loathed at worst.
The fact that Bersatu is no longer the main party in the federal government, and Muhyiddin no longer the prime minister, proved to be a disadvantage.
For comparison, Bersatu won 11 seats in Sabah last year when its president was helming the federal administration, despite only making its debut there.
Muhyiddin’s fading popularity, after an initial surge in approval ratings during his early days of prime ministership, was always expected to have some bearing on his party’s performance in Melaka.
Bersatu currently has 31 MPs in Parliament, but this number is expected to fall come the next general election.
Malaysians hunger for new blood in PH
Remember “strong, formidable, and convincing”, the quote made ever so popular by Anwar just last year? How this seems like the distant past today.
It came about when many fence-sitters who voted for PH in the last election started falling out of love for the coalition, as they began losing hope over repeated, unfulfilled promises and meaningless claims.
Murmurs of dissatisfaction and calls for young blood to be injected into the top leadership have since started creeping their way into the coalition.
They grew stronger after the election results were made official late last night, as calls for a change in PH’s top leadership garnered momentum on social media – even among its supporters.
The sentiment was clear – the coalition’s heavy defeat is as much the result of the masses’ increasing acceptance of BN as it is their lack of trust for PH.
To pin the blame of the election defeat on PH’s top leadership alone would be unjust.
And while party leaders have said they will be going back to the drawing board to strategise for the next general election, it would also be wise for them to take a hard look at themselves. – The Vibes, November 22, 2021
Additional reporting by Amar Shah Mohsen
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