JOHOR BARU – A decisive win in Johor for Barisan Nasional (BN) does not necessarily cement a victory for Prime Minister Datuk Seri Ismail Sabri Yaakob should a general election be called later this year.
Even if BN secures a convincing win at the federal level, Umno vice-president Ismail Sabri may not be chosen to lead the country.
Universiti Malaya academic Prof Awang Azman Awang Pawi said these calls from Umno for an early federal election is because the opposition is perceived to be in a weak position after major losses in Sarawak and Melaka.
Any delays, he said, could see the opposition getting its act together to pose a credible threat to BN.
“If BN has a general election at the end of the year or next year, the opposition’s position could strengthen.
“That’s why BN wants the election to happen as soon as possible,” Awang told The Vibes.
However, calls for a snap election is very much dependent on BN’s performance in Johor tomorrow.
If the results are not as favourable as BN expects, there is a possibility that Ismail Sabri will wait it out as the momentum is not as strong as during the Melaka polls.
“But Umno deputy president Datuk Seri Mohamad Hasan has said although the coalition does not win big in Johor, an early election should still happen.
“If that narrative resonates with Umno’s grassroots, a general election cannot be avoided.”
However, Umno’s obstacle could very well be its own vice-president as Ismail Sabri has no intention of becoming Malaysia’s shortest-serving leader.
Awang added that a BN win does not guarantee Ismail Sabri a second term.
“This is why he may want the elections to be held later. The longer the wait, the longer he serves as prime minister.”
Meanwhile, Singapore Institute of International Affairs senior fellow Oh Ei Sun said Umno president Datuk Seri Ahmad Zahid Hamidi is possibly pushing for early polls so he can nominate party candidates who are likely to win their seats.
With loyalists in power, Zahid would then be in a position to cast Ismail Sabri aside and quash possible challenges to the party presidency.
“Zahid is mainly pushing for a general election soonest such that he could still hold the power to nominate the Umno candidates, most of whom are likely to go on to win their respective seats.
“With these loyalists, Zahid will be in an unbeatable position and any meaningful challenge to the party presidency,” Oh told The Vibes.
Any delay over the general election could be a threat to Zahid’s leadership in Umno.
Oh said this is due to the fact that Ismail Sabri could use his position as prime minister at party elections to challenge Zahid’s presidency at Umno, which the latter will surely want to prevent.
As for Pakatan Harapan (PH), parliamentary affairs analyst Ooi Heng suggested this would mean the opposition coalition would have to fix issues within their ranks before the general election.
Depending on the results in Johor, he said PH may either consider changes in its leadership line-up, or relationships among component parties.
“If let’s say, all PH component parties win a few seats in Johor, I think it will be okay with the current arrangement.
“But if we see a situation where for example Muda wins two seats and PKR the same, DAP and Amanah may raise the possibility of reshuffling the coalition or consider a new political alliance.” – The Vibes, March 11, 2022
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