KUALA LUMPUR – The meeting between former prime ministers Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin and Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad has triggered predictions of a new grand coalition underway, but analysts believe cooperation between rivalling opposition parties is unlikely in the coming general election (GE15).
The political observers pointed to the fractious relationships between Muhyiddin-led Bersatu and its offshoot Pejuang, helmed by Dr Mahathir, as well as their former allies in Pakatan Harapan.
The analysts noted a lack of cohesion between the likes of Bersatu, Pejuang, and Bersatu, as well as the Pakatan Harapan (PH) component parties – PKR, DAP, and Amanah – after the Sheraton Move in early 2020 that led to the collapse of the PH federal government.
They said Muhyiddin’s efforts to regain the helm may be futile, while the possibility of opposition parties coming together to form a minority government is also far-fetched.
Universiti Teknologi Malaysia geostrategist Prof Azmi Hassan said leadership structure is the biggest hurdle opposition parties face in forming a coalition.
He said Muhyiddin would need to square off with PKR president Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim to become the opposition leader and prime minister-designate.
“If Anwar cannot gain support as the prime minister, Muhyiddin can take his place, but the opposition has to resolve this problem first before any umbrella concept can be achieved,” he told The Vibes.
“Even within PH, internal conflicts have been seen during the polls in Melaka and Johor, where DAP lost many seats, and PKR failed to gain any footholds.”
Even if the estranged opposition parties band together under a single banner, Azmi said, their focus on defeating Barisan Nasional (BN) could backfire.
He added that the goal of defeating BN would be seen as a “compliment” by BN’s core supporters as it reflected the coalition’s ability to form a government.
He said those favouring BN could then consolidate their support for the coalition, and former loyalists who voted for the opposition in 2018 would return to the fold.
“The fence-sitters, on the other hand, want a stable government. So if the opposition talks about defeating BN as its main agenda, the fence-sitters would vote for BN.
“The opposition needs to be careful in coming together and portraying BN as its common enemy.”
On a minority government, Azmi said it is “difficult” to imagine one being formed in Malaysia as it has never happened before.
Moreover, the constitution requires a prime minister to gain the majority support in Parliament to assume the post.
“So if BN wins the most seats, but does not pass the majority threshold, it could still gain the support of external parties to form a government,” Azmi said, adding that BN was likely to win GE15 if it was to be held in the near future, especially in 2022.
Yesterday, Muhyiddin confirmed rumours that he met Dr Mahathir on Friday, saying that it was part of his efforts to build cooperation with non-BN parties ahead of the looming national polls.
Dr Mahathir had earlier said that Muhyiddin had come to him for a meeting, during which the latter had asked for help to regain the prime ministership.
Muhyiddin assumed the position in March 2020, in the aftermath of the Sheraton Move. He resigned last year after 17 months in power, paving the way for Prime Minister Datuk Seri Ismail Sabri Yaakob of BN linchpin Umno.
The Pagoh MP said he arranged to meet with Dr Mahathir after an earlier meeting with a senior leader from the nonagenarian’s Pejuang party, adding he sought political cooperation to avoid multi-cornered contests in GE15.
Muhyiddin said he took it upon himself to meet with political party leaders both in government and the opposition to discuss the possibility of political cooperation but stressed that it is still in the early stages and that no final decision has been made.
Adding to Muhyiddin’s woes, DAP’s Lim Guan Eng yesterday reiterated that his party would not cooperate with Bersatu or its leader due to the “backstabbing” PH faced during the Sheraton Move.
Meanwhile, Singapore Institute of International Affairs senior fellow Oh Ei Sun echoed Azmi’s take on the matter, saying the opposition parties faced immense power struggles.
“Such a grand coalition or big tent for the opposition may sound fantastic in the abstract.
“In practice, however, each of the chiefs of the respective opposition parties thinks he should be the most qualified head of such a coalition, failing which his party would rather go it alone, even if that implies that it would be impossible for the opposition to form the next government."
And since there are no permanent friends and foes in politics, as the old saying goes, Oh did not rule out an unexpected cooperation between opposition parties and Umno.
“Some opposition parties, such as DAP or Warisan, may join Umno to form the government.
“Umno commands the Malay votes, while DAP has the support of non-Malays. Together, they would have a majority, and this could even be a two-third majority if we add Gabungan Parti Sarawak.”
He added that Umno and its BN coalition partners currently had about 80 seats in Parliament, while DAP had more than 40 seats on its own.
Oh said the Malay-led Umno, Bersatu, and PAS were all chasing after the same voter base, which means that they are structurally rivals.
“Umno and DAP are going after different voter cohorts, and so is GPS, so they can combine (forces) after the election.
“They would keep quiet (about this) before elections so as not to antagonise their respective supporter bases.”
Universiti Sains Malaysia’s Azmil Tayeb said this super coalition would never work as the parties are “too different” and “unreliable” in cooperating with each other against a common enemy.
“I still see many multi-cornered contests in GE15, especially in Malay-majority areas,” Azmil told The Vibes.
“If BN and GPS come together, they might be able to get the 112 seats needed to form the government.”
Azmil also said Umno won 79 seats in the previous election and that it is “entirely possible” for it to form a government with GPS if it can improve on its performance. – The Vibes, March 4, 2022
