By Murray Hunter
AFTER a long wait, the Melaka chief minister Datuk Seri Ab Rauf Yusoh has called a state election, due within 60 days from September 23.
The Melaka state election should have been held before Johor and Negeri Sembilan, but the chief minister waited for the most opportune time.
The Melaka assembly has 28 seats and was last contested on Nov 20, 2021, when BN won 21 seats, Pakatan Harapan (PH) five and Perikatan Nasional (PN) two.
The current state government's mandate is due to expire in December.
Up to now, there have been lots of negotiations between the parties as to which way they could work together. However, it's very clear that the BN, urged on by its wins in Johor and Negeri Sembilan, led by UMNO, intends to go for an almost clean sweep in the coming election.
There are reports that PAS intends to contest 16 of Melaka’s 28 seats, including Tanjung Bidara held by the caretaker chief minister Ab Rauf.
At the time of writing, PH appears to be working out a deal with Bersatu, but it remains unconfirmed.
This will be the first electoral test since the Pardons Board allowed former prime minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak to serve the remainder of his sentence under home detention, and the constitutional crisis in Negeri Sembilan has been inflamed by UMNO.
The electoral effects of this are still largely unknown.
The DAP looks safe to hold Ayer Keroh with a 5,624-vote majority, Bandar Hilir with a 7,778-vote majority, Kota Lakasamana with an 11,494-vote majority, and Kesidang with a 10,237-vote majority.
The voter turnout will be crucial, with the DAP needing their traditional supporters to turn out to hold the seats. However, the influence of DAP secretary-general Anthony Loke’s intention to resign, and the failure of other DAP ministers to make any declarations about their future, cannot be calculated. Amanah has a 1,057-vote majority in Bukit Katil, which UMNO/PAS will fight very hard for.
PKR have no seats in the Melaka State Assembly, and it will be very difficult to see where they could win any new seats.
The seat of Sunai Udang, won by Mohd Aleef Yusof from Bersatu in the 2021 election, was held by only a 530-vote majority.
This is likely to fall to either UMNO or PAS.
If the BN and PAS do an electoral deal, then BN will be returned with around 21 seats, with PAS possibly winning up to 3 seats, with the DAP maintaining the 4 seats it holds.
If BN and PAS don’t do a deal, then PAS may be able to add a couple of seats. From that point of view, the Melaka state election will really be a non-event.
However, the BN proving Johor and Negeri Sembilan are not just flukes would increase pressure on the Prime Minister from the BN in edging for an early federal election.
The Prime Minister is holding steadfast on not calling for an early general election, so an increase in political turbulence will be expected. – September 24, 2026
