KUALA LUMPUR – Unimaginable as it may have seemed two years ago, when Bersatu led the federal government and appeared to command firm support on the ground, the party now possibly faces the bleak prospect of a wipeout in the looming general election.
A combination of a number of factors – including public acrimony towards party hoppers, its role in the collapse of the Pakatan Harapan (PH) government, and its own waning influence – could potentially lead to Bersatu’s downfall, political observers project.
One analyst went as far as predicting the party would possibly return from the polls empty-handed.
This perhaps explains its continued push to form political alliances with rival parties – after an initial failed attempt to cooperate with Barisan Nasional (BN), Bersatu and its coalition Perikatan Nasional (PN) mooted the idea of working with Pakatan Harapan (PH), which was rejected.
Possibly out of desperation, Bersatu president Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin said yesterday his party was willing to consider an electoral pact with the Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad-led Pejuang, indicating his awareness of where his outfit currently stands.
Even big guns at risk of losing
Speaking to The Vibes, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia (UKM) academician Prof Kartini Aboo Talib said, in particular, Bersatu’s strategy of retaining all of its incumbents for the 15th general election could backfire.
For one, she pointed out that this would mean many of the ex-Umno and PKR leaders, who quit their outfits to join Bersatu following the 2018 polls, will be returning to face their former parties.
If they want to compete in the same seats, I don’t see voters supporting them. Many voted for them because of the party they represented then. Do you think they will support them now that they are with Bersatu?” she said.
In a press conference in Perak last weekend, Muhyiddin, who is also PN chairman, said the coalition would likely maintain its incumbents based on the winnable candidate principle.
Kartini, however, does not see Bersatu performing better than it did in the last election when the Malay-based party contested as part of the PH coalition that went on to secure a shocking win against BN.
She said the recent Melaka and Johor elections, which saw Bersatu only managing to win two seats in each state respectively, should serve as a strong indication of the party’s dwindling support, presumably due to rejection over its betrayal of the rakyat’s mandate.
“In 2018, it was a completely different story. Now, most of the rakyat reject them, and they don’t have strong machinery like BN or PH to rally support. So, I think they will win fewer seats, or even possibly none at all.”
For the record, Bersatu won 13 parliamentary seats in the last general election, although the number later climbed following party hopping. However, recent defections among several of its lawmakers have left the party with 28 MPs.
Kartini said even big names like Muhyiddin and Datuk Seri Mohamed Azmin Ali, who are the respective incumbents in Pagoh and Gombak, are set to face a tough time when the country heads to the polls next month.
I think voters have been waiting to penalise them for jumping and causing the collapse of the PH government. They want to teach them a lesson. That’s why I said Bersatu could win nothing, probably not even Pagoh.”
Traitors are not safe, voters will remember
National Council of Professors chairman Prof Datuk Shamsul Amri Baharuddin similarly opined that even prominent figures like Muhyiddin should be wary of losing their seats, saying this was not a far-fetched possibility considering the current circumstances.
The director at UKM’s Institute of Ethnic Studies said others who defected from Umno and PKR to Bersatu will also likely be punished, predicting that only those with the financial prowess to influence support may remain in power.
“Voters will always remember. I know Muhyiddin said PN would place their incumbents (to contest the seats currently held). I can say for sure now, they won’t win. Bersatu will only remain in name, nothing else,” he told The Vibes.
“People don’t want to vote for them anymore, they are not stupid. They will punish these politicians.”
For Universiti Malaysia Sabah’s Assoc Prof Lee Kuok Tiung, with public anger against Bersatu remaining a key sore point for the party, the survival of its MPs now hinges on their own political mileage.
He also concurred that the candidates, particularly those who party-hopped, are set to face difficulty defending their seats as they will be contesting in constituencies that have traditionally belonged to either PKR or Umno.
The only saving grace for Bersatu, Lee said, is that the party can now afford to count on PAS’ vote bank for support, although this would likely still be insufficient against the might of BN and PH.
“In the recent state elections, it was quite obvious that this PN pact didn’t work out. But sometimes, the voting trend at the federal level can be different,” said Lee.
“Granted, I believe it will be very challenging for Bersatu to maintain the status quo, in comparison to the 13 seats it won in 2018. Especially with multi-cornered fights guaranteed, expect a lower number of seats to be won by the party.” – The Vibes, October 14, 2022
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