KUALA LUMPUR – If the various polls and surveys are to be taken at face value, the outcome of tomorrow’s general election seems to be a race that is wide open.
If the Economist UK is to be believed, Barisan Nasional (BN) will win. The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) however said it will not win a two-thirds majority, and hence will need to look across the divide to form alliances to establish a federal government.
It also said the estimated 6.23 million new voters are not anticipated to make the necessary difference expected of the shift in voting patterns between the 18- and 24-year-olds.
The Malaysian Institute of National Development, meanwhile, polled 1,000 voters in 166 parliamentary constituencies in Peninsular Malaysia, and predicted that BN will get 75 seats, Pakatan Harapan (PH) 54 seats, and Perikatan Nasional (PN) 36 seats.
Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad’s Gerakan Tanah Air (GTA) is expected to win only one – presumably his own seat of Langkawi.
However, a surge of more than 20% of young voters going to the polls could change the scenario to BN with 65, PH 56, PN 44, and GTA maintaining its single seat.
As Kedah PH chairman Datuk Mahfuz Omar told The Vibes: “take poll predictions with a grain of salt”.
This can be illustrated by a Vodus poll that puts PH in the lead with 86 seats over BN’s 67 and PN’s 31.
This is followed by Gabungan Parti Sarawak (GPS) at 27; Gabungan Rakyat Sabah (GRS) at 10 and Warisan only one.
In a survey of the 165 peninsular seats, Emir Research, whose founder Datuk Rais Hussin just joined PKR, also puts PH ahead with a whopping 94 seats to BN’s 46 and PN’s 24.
This seems to be consistent with a YouGov poll of 2,687 Malaysians where 35% said they would vote PH, 20% for PN, and 17% for BN. A further 3% would vote for GPS and 1% each to GTA, GRS, and Warisan.
Interestingly, a popularity poll saw YouGov rank PN chairman and Bersatu president Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin as most popular, followed by PH chairman and PKR president Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim (29%); caretaker prime minister and Umno vice-president Datuk Seri Ismail Sabri Yaakob (22%); and Dr Mahathir at 14%.
Another pollster, Endeavour-MGC Research Centre, predicts a PH win, but it will not form the government, as a joint alliance among BN, PN and GPS will create the next administration.
PH was projected to win between 55 and 70 seats from Peninsular Malaysia’s 165 parliamentary constituencies, while BN would secure between 52 and 65 seats, and PN between 30 and 58 seats.
GPS is expected to win 27 out of 31 parliamentary seats in Sarawak, and PN-leaning GRS in Sabah will take 12 seats, with BN six seats and PH only two.
If anything, polls and surveys are not crystal balls. Voting trends today are inconsistent – a mirror of the restless youth that make up more than six million new voters.
The crowds at ceramah at times can also be misleading, with political party divisions outside of a constituency coming in droves to make up the numbers.
What is certain though is that the people will go in droves to polling stations, come rain, shine, or floods, to make their choice that will make a difference to the country – for better or for worse. – The Vibes, November 18, 2022
