KUALA LUMPUR – As Johor gears up for the Pulai and Simpang Jeram by-elections, the spotlight is not just on the candidates but also on the anticipated voter turnout.
The Pulai parliamentary race, in particular, has garnered attention, with Pakatan Harapan's (PH) candidate for the seat, Suhaizan Kaiat, highlighting the crucial role high voter turnout would play in Amanah’s bid to defend the seat.
This emphasis underscores the importance of the interplay between voter engagement, election outcomes, and coalition politics.
Suhaizan's assertion that a voter turnout of at least 70% would enhance PH's prospects in retaining the Pulai seat underscores a salient point.
The success of any democratic process hinges on active citizen participation. By-elections are often marked by lower voter turnout compared to general elections.
His concerns are rooted in this historical trend and the realisation that a low turnout could make the task of retaining the seats significantly more challenging.
The aspiration for a high voter turnout isn't unfounded. The Pulai seat witnessed a voter turnout of 71% in the previous general election held in November 2022.
But with what some have called “election fatigue”, a lower turnout could potentially lead to an outcome that doesn't truly represent the will of the majority.
The other seat being contested is Simpang Jeram, a state assembly constituency.
Reliance on Umno support
What makes the Pulai and Simpang Jeram by-elections an interesting case study is the collaboration between PH and Barisan Nasional (BN).
The acknowledgement of PH's need for assistance from Umno in areas where the party holds significant sway exemplifies the complexities of these alliances.
This collaboration adds a layer of strategy to the equation, with parties working together to ensure higher voter turnout in their strongholds. It highlights the need for more motivated political forces to mobilise voters in their favour.
A high turnout, particularly from demographic groups traditionally leaning towards PH, might bolster its prospects. However, a low turnout could potentially undermine their position.
Yet, the electoral outcome isn't solely PH-BN’s ability to rally voters. The influence of Perikatan Nasional (PN) supporters, especially those having links with Umno members and supporters, looms large.
Historically, Umno backers have been instrumental in shaping electoral outcomes. If they turn out in robust numbers, rallying behind the PN candidate, those in the PH-BN coalition might find themselves in troubled waters.
Umno leaders are making concerted efforts to explain their reasons for aligning with PH. While such collaboration can usher in political stability, it might also confound grassroots supporters, introducing ambiguity in their electoral choices.
Risk of voter disenchantment
It must also be noted that the call for a healthy voter turnout isn't just about numbers. It's about the vitality of Malaysia's democratic fabric.
The concept of election fatigue is real. Frequent elections, shifts in allegiances, and a sense of political volatility can lead to voters feeling disenchanted with the process.
When citizens perceive their votes as having minimal impact on the overall political scenario, it can dampen enthusiasm.
Suhaizan's appeal for a robust turnout doesn't merely affect the PH-BN-PN dynamics; it reflects on the essence of democracy.
A higher turnout signifies an engaged electorate, actively participating in shaping the nation's future. It's a vote of confidence in the democratic process itself, showing that voters believe their voice matters.
The by-elections, called following the passing of Datuk Seri Salahuddin Ayub, who was the elected legislator for both seats, is more than just a political event and shows the fluidity of political scenarios.
It is also seen as a test for PN. Whether the "Green Wave" can make landfall in Johor, is yet to be seen and many are eagerly waiting to see the outcome.
It is pivotal to recognise that the significance of voter turnout transcends immediate political gains. It's about the larger narrative of where the nation is headed over the next four years. The decisions made on polling day will determine the fate of Pulai and Simpang Jeram, but they'll also reflect the collective engagement of voters by the two coalitions.
These elections serve as a reminder that while politicians compete for power, the true power lies in the hands of the voters who actively engage in shaping Malaysia's future. – The Vibes, September 2, 2023
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