ASEAN’S ongoing export boom is unlikely to face a sudden reversal, supported by the region’s tariff advantages over other markets and sustained demand, particularly in the electronics sector, according to analysts.
Maybank Investment Bank (Maybank IB) said the perceived risk of a sharp pullback in exports is “overstated”, citing several structural and cyclical advantages still working in Asean’s favour.
Among the most significant advantages is the region’s relative tariff edge when exporting to the United States compared to countries such as China, India, Brazil, Switzerland and Canada, which face higher reciprocal tariff rates and additional trade penalties.
“Asean may benefit from the substitution of US import demand from these higher tariff countries,” said the bank. “Within Asean, Vietnam benefits more from a relative tariff advantage, followed by Singapore, Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia.”
Electronics exports, which form a large share of Asean trade, are also expected to remain resilient due to their tariff-exempt status and rising demand linked to the global artificial intelligence boom.
“A potential 100 per cent tariff on semiconductors will likely be exempt for companies that are investing in America,” said the report, referring to ongoing policy shifts in US trade strategy.
Maybank IB also downplayed concerns around overstocking in the US, noting that the build-up of inventories has been modest—far below levels seen during the pandemic.
“Both retail and wholesale build-up of inventories has been modest and far less than the magnitude seen during the pandemic, which dampened the export recovery after reopening,” it stated, adding that rising warehouse vacancy rates in Q2 reflect cautious inventory management rather than saturation.
The investment bank also noted that front-loading of exports—where businesses accelerate shipments ahead of potential tariff changes—has fuelled much of the recent trade activity, but not to an extent that suggests an impending collapse in demand.
However, Bank Muamalat Malaysia Bhd’s chief economist, Dr Mohd Afzanizam Abdul Rashid, offered a more cautious view, warning that recent export figures may not reflect a stable underlying trend.
“Customers from the US may have accelerated their import orders in anticipation of higher tariffs commencing in August,” he said. “On that note, the new reality will set in from August onwards, as US citizens will have to pay more for their imported goods.”
He added that the resulting shift in consumer behaviour could see demand easing as households opt for smaller or fewer purchases.
Dr Afzanizam also warned of potential labour disruptions in the US, noting that the departure of immigrant workers could exacerbate labour shortages and undermine production capabilities.
“I think this year will still be fairly good for trade, as the large part has been contributed by front-loading activities,” he said. “Next year will be very critical. Assuming the Trump administration maintains their hawkish stance on trade, it would result in moderation in demand from the US.”
Despite differing views on the long-term trajectory, analysts broadly agree that Asean's near-term trade outlook remains robust—underpinned by regional competitiveness, ongoing demand for strategic sectors such as semiconductors, and a temporary export surge ahead of tariff realignments. - September 16, 2025
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