HONG KONG – Asian markets were mixed today on profit-taking and growing worries about inflation, which offset long-running optimism about the global recovery as Covid-19 vaccines are rolled out, infection rates slow, and President Joe Biden’s stimulus winds through Congress.
Oil prices pushed further up to 13-month highs as the severe cold snap in the United States hammers production, even trumping news that Saudi Arabia is planning to increase output in light of the commodity’s strong performance in recent months.
Confidence that the world economy will enjoy a scorching rebound from last year’s collapse has fired global equities and other risk assets for months, as immunisation programmes allow people to slowly get back to a semblance of normality as virus lockdowns are eased.
Underpinning that has been vast amounts of government spending, as well as ultra-loose central bank monetary policies and pledges of continued support until the recovery is well under way.
But, that has led to expectations of a surge in inflation and a spike in US Treasury yields to around one-year highs, sparking worries of higher borrowing costs down the line.
And, it is these fears, along with warnings that equities may have run ahead of themselves, that are playing on investors’ minds.
Those concerns were allayed by a forecast-beating jump in US retail sales last month, and wholesale inflation climbed at its fastest pace since the index was revamped in December 2009.
“Strong US economic data dampened the argument that the economy still needs massive stimulus, and as rising inflation expectations start to weigh on valuations,” said Oanda strategist Edward Moya.
“Technology stocks are leading the decline as pricing pressures will likely have the biggest impact on their bottom line. The skyrocketing move in yields is triggering some investors to take off some of their most profitable frothy trades.”
Crude extends gains
Still, observers said the surprise jump will be unlikely to shift the Federal Reserve from its course, as the economy continues to be threatened by the pandemic and is “far from” achieving growth and employment goals.
While the Dow edged to another record high, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both dipped.
Asian markets swung through the morning. Tokyo, Sydney, Taipei and Jakarta were all up, while Shanghai put on 1% as it reopened after the week-long Chinese New Year break.
However, Hong Kong, Singapore, Seoul, Wellington and Manila were all in the red.
Stephen Innes of Axi said while rising yields and price concerns remain, “improving Covid-19 trends and robust economic data allow investors to turn their attention to updates on reopening timelines – especially from the UK and the US, as cries for a quicker end to mobility restrictions grow more vocal”.
Oil prices rallied more than 1% as economic reopening optimism is mixed with news that the US cold snap has hammered output, with Bloomberg News reporting 40% of the nation’s production has been hit.
The US troubles overshadow Riyadh’s decision to ease production cuts within the next few months.
“I don’t think the markets were overly shocked about the Saudi rollback amid the roaring recovery in global demand, good news on the Covid-19 vaccine roll-out, and the extremely healthy oil price,” said Innes.
Bitcoin tapped another record of US$52,631 (RM212,523), just days after breaking US$50,000.
Key figures around 0300 GMT
Tokyo – Nikkei 225: UP 0.2% at 30,344.97 (break)
Hong Kong – Hang Seng: DOWN 0.6% at 30,915.45
Shanghai – Composite: UP 1.0% at 3,692.57
Euro/dollar: DOWN at US$1.2043 from US$1.2043 at 2230 GMT
Pound/dollar: DOWN at US$1.3858 from US$1.3858
Euro/pound: DOWN at 86.87 pence from 86.87 pence
Dollar/yen: DOWN at ¥105.86 from ¥105.86
Brent North Sea crude: UP 1.6% at US$65.34 per barrel
West Texas Intermediate: UP 1.3% at US$61.95 per barrel
New York – Dow: UP 0.3% at 31,613.02 (close)
London – FTSE 100: DOWN 0.6% at 6,710.90 (close). – AFP, February 18, 2021
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