KUALA LUMPUR – Maybank Investment Bank (Maybank IB) Research has maintained its “positive” call on the regional plantation sector based on expectations of crude palm oil (CPO) prices staying relatively lofty until the first quarter of 2022 (1Q22).
The research house said CPO prices were expected to remain lofty on supply concerns although it may not sustain at RM5,000 per tonne.
“Near term CPO price may continue to be supported by the fact that palm oil output will enter into a seasonal low yield period in 1Q22,” it said in a note today.
According to the Malaysian Palm Oil Board, September 2021 stockpile fell 7.0% month-on-month to 1.75 million tonnes, below street estimates of 1.87 million tonnes.
Maybank IB Research said the recent CPO price rally to above RM5,000 per tonne (spot month) has further narrowed CPO price discounts.
“We maintain our view that the current high CPO price is not sustainable as a wider discount is needed to sustain demand.
“India’s demand for vegetable oils will likely weaken post Deepavali,” it said.
In the fourth quarter, the market will closely monitor the ongoing South American planting season of crops for new price direction.
“The market is expecting record planting and harvest at this juncture.
“A confirmation and potential impact of La Nina on South America crop development till its harvest in March and April 2022 will be a key swing factor to watch in the coming months,” it added. – Bernama, October 14, 2021
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