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Which countries could be most impacted by future heatwaves?

In these at-risk countries and regions, the threat is heightened by a lack of sufficient protection from such heatwaves

Updated 3 years ago · Published on 01 May 2023 8:00AM

Which countries could be most impacted by future heatwaves? — The population of Papua New Guinea is particularly at risk from future heatwaves. – ETX pic, May 1, 2023

AS Spain stifles in temperatures of up to 40°C in Andalusia, in the long term, it is not Western Europe but Central America – including Guatemala, Nicaragua, El Salvador, Honduras, Costa Rica and Panama – as well as Afghanistan and Papua New Guinea, that could be hit the hardest by future heatwaves.

Researchers from the University of Bristol, whose findings are reported in the Daily Mail, confirm that we can expect to see more record-breaking temperatures in the coming decades. But in these at-risk countries and regions, the threat is heightened by a lack of sufficient protection from such heatwaves.

These countries are in a position that is "intensified by conflict and other vulnerabilities," explains the Daily Mail. In other words, it is a combination of socio-economic factors and a lack of preparation that seriously compromise the countries and regions on the list.

All regions of the world are vulnerable to heatwaves, which can occur at any time. In fact, 31% of the regions analysed – based on data for 1959 to 2021 – have experienced extreme and unexpected heat episodes. The study cites the example of the 2021 heatwave in Western North America. Meanwhile, the Far Eastern Russia is in first place on the list because the current heat records fall well below the statistical maximum.

But the scientists are most concerned about Afghanistan, which they identify as one of the least developed countries globally, and where they predict a sharp increase in population. Demographics are logically a key factor in this analysis, which explains why a city like Beijing in China features in the list.

"A high chance of record-breaking temperatures, growing populations, and limited healthcare and energy provision, increase the risks," write the University of Bristol researchers.

Lack of access to healthcare is another important parameter in weighing up the potential impact of heatwaves. This barrier to care is precisely what threatens the populations of countries like Papua New Guinea.

However, it should be noted that the study does not include any African countries, due to the limited data available for them. The same is true for North Korea.

The complete list of countries where record-breaking heatwaves are likely to cause the most harm is available via the scientific journal, Nature Communications.