PAKATAN Harapan (PH) is expected to emerge victorious in the Kuala Kubu Baharu (KKB) by-election tomorrow, with the battle anticipated to go down till the crossing line, a pollster said based on its survey.
The survey by Ilham Centre found that PH has the edge over Perikatan Nasional on several issues, including issues on the ground.
“PH represented by DAP has a slight advantage in keeping KKB from falling into the hands of opponents,” the survey found.
The survey also said the turnout for the polls could be lower than what was accounted for during the six-state elections held in August last year.
“Despite a heated campaigning and lively atmosphere during the last state polls, it only was able to record 69.25% voter turnout.
“This implies a huge task for the party machinery to persuade, encourage and mobilize efforts to ensure as many voters as possible out to fulfil their responsibilities.
“The findings show that the percentage of voter turnout may be lower compared to the August state polls as the majority of voters are outside the area not returning home to vote.
“The weather factor on the day also will play a role in determining the turnout percentage”.
The survey also noted that identity politics persists and that racial line narrative shapes voter polarisation.
“This by-election once again continues the momentum of identity politics as shown significantly in the 15th General Election and the six state polls.
“Although various issues arise throughout the campaign period, such as the cost of living, job opportunities, infrastructure facilities and so on, the tendency to vote is still tied to racial polarisation.
“The majority of Malay voters show support for Perikatan though at the same time they give high credit to the performance of the Selangor government (74 percent satisfaction level), the Menteri Besar Amirudin Shari’s performance (70.8 percent satisfaction level), as well as the performance of the late KKB assemblyman (63 percent satisfaction level).
“The majority of support for Perikatan is because of ‘ethno religious’ sentiments, with the pact claiming to be more Malay-Muslim.
“Only a handful of Malay voters showed support for PH (in the survey). They have different views with the majority group because they claim the reality of the country’s politics needs to be cross-ethnic and share power according to the demographics of a plural society Malaysia,” the survey found.
The Ilham survey also found that PAS was not passionate about campaigning while Umno is starting to find a rhythm.
It found that PAS was not mobilising their machinery earnestly.
“It is the PAS machinery which is the backbone of Perikatan. This time there was no glimpse of PAS machinery from other states. Selangor PAS’ participation was also not aggressive, contributing to a dull-like atmosphere.
“As for the BN machinery, especially Umno, it seems that the machinery’s performance this time is better compared to last state polls, where they seem to have found the groove in attracting voters to support the PH candidate.
“A number of Umno members who protested in the last election have started to accept again the fact that Umno is with PH,” it found.
Battle to win Indian and Orang Asli votes
The survey found that parties were trying to impress the Indians, who are likely to be the “kingmakers” in this election.
“Issues related to the interests and welfare of the Indian community here have become the focal point and focus of the campaign.
“In a situation where the Malay ethnic majority is cornered by the Perikatan, the Chinese are on PH’s side, then the voting pattern of Indians is key as they can be the kingmakers.
“As for the indigenous community (orang asli), the BN machinery seems to be effective in approaching this segment of voters.
“Although there is a lag in terms of infrastructure in their area, their loyalty to the government made it difficult for Perikatan to penetrate this group. This gives a slight advantage to PH candidates.
“Also the role of Tok Batin (village head) is still relevant and even has a function so significant in translating the votes,” it added.
Finally, the survey found that active campaigning was very visible online but not so on the ground.
“It turns out KKB polls are duller than the series of by-elections held after GE15.
“For political observers, the by-election campaign is very boring. The physical campaigns by candidates received a ‘lukewarm’ response from voters.
“It was hard to see a large ceramah being welcomed by the locals. On a normal day, only party supporters filled the seats.
“Voters on the fence, including young people, were not present at the ceramahs.
“Ironically, the atmosphere seems quite lively on social media,” it said.
Based on all the above, Ilham Centre, which polled 404 respondents for this survey, found that PH will edge Perikatan by a slight margin in the closely contested by-election.
The by-election is a four-cornered fight among Pang Sock Tao (PH/DAP), Khairul Azhari Saut (PN/Bersatu), Hafizah Zainuddin (Parti Rakyat Malaysia) and Independent Nyau Ke Xin.
The KKB constituency has a mixed electorate of Malays (53.4)%, Chinese (30.5%), and Indians (15.82%). The remainder is made up of Orang Asli and others.
There are 40,226 registered voters in KKB. Young people in the 21-30 age group make up the biggest bloc of voters, at 9,400.– May 10, 2024.
