By Murray Hunter
AS expected, Johor Menteri Besar Datuk Onn Hafiz Ghazi announced on June 1 that the Johor Regent Tunku Ismail Sultan Ibrahim had consented to dissolve the state assembly, with an election due within 60 days.
This had followed rumblings about the above action, which will no doubt pre-empt the dissolution of the Melaka State Assembly before September (automatically dissolved on December 27, 2026).
Both Johor and Melaka are Umno strongholds. In Johor, the Barisan Nasional (BN) holds 40 of the 56 seats in the state assembly.
Pakatan Harapan (PH) hold 12 seats, with Perikatan Nasional (PN) holding 3 seats, and Muda holding one seat.
In Melaka, the BN holds 21 seats in the 28-seat state assembly, with Bersatu holding 2 seats. The DAP holds 4 seats in the Melaka state assembly, which is considered one of the party’s strongholds. Amanah holds one seat.
It's not hard to assume that within the next few days, the Melaka state assembly will also be dissolved, bringing on what one could describe as a ‘mini GE’, or GE curtain raiser.
The logic here would be for all the parties to test out their election strategies in Johor and Melaka and then move on to the big game with a full general election at a later time.
This would be optimal for the ‘unity government’.
However, Umno, reading the current political play on the peninsula, may be attempting to push for a full general election, knowing that Pakatan Harapan is in a weak position, and Perikatan Nasional has its own issues to sort out with Bersatu in strife and the unreadiness of former Bersatu deputy president Datuk Seri Hamzah Zainudin with his own party.
Most importantly, Umno will catch Datuk Seri Rafizi Ramli and his Bersama party totally unprepared for an election.
There are very few candidates ready, and the party has no grassroots organisation to run an effective campaign.
Any general election playing out with such conditions could see Umno winning seats all the way up the peninsula to Kedah and across to Pahang.
Prime Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim is being pressured to capitulate and call a general election.
The ‘pig farming issue’ in Selangor has potentially damaged the DAP’s ability to retain the loyalty of its traditional supporters, and Anwar was made to appear weak by the whole saga.
A conspiracy theorist would think this was all engineered.
Umno has now played its hand. There will be two state elections over the next few months. They will be in Umno’s strongholds.
Any delay in calling a general election would allow Rafizi’s group to become more organised and Bersatu to reorganise itself.
If Anwar advises the YDPA for a general election, his own party, PKR, will be in a precarious position, where every seat they stand in will be an extremely difficult fight. However, Bersatu could be decimated, and Bersama would not be given much chance to get organised.
In addition, there could be an economic downturn later in the year due to the shortages in the petroleum supply from the Middle East. Calling the election now would make sense.
The prime minister has been forced by Umno to make a very important strategic decision, which could gravely affect PKR.
That is to go now or wait until the government has served its full term. – June 2, 2026
