PERIKATAN Nasional (PN) has forecast a hung assembly in Johor's 16th state election, with Johor chairman Datuk Dr Sahruddin Jamal expressing confidence that no single political bloc will secure a simple majority and insisting the coalition remains capable of forming the next state government through electoral alliances.
The projection comes as Bersatu seeks to reassure supporters that its relationship with PAS remains functional despite the formal termination of political cooperation between the two parties earlier this month and growing speculation over Bersatu's diminishing influence in Johor.
Sahruddin said PN's decision to contest only 33 of the state's 56 seats would not prevent the coalition from assembling a governing majority after polling day.
"Although it appears that PN is contesting only 33 seats, we have an electoral pact with several other parties.
"So that is not a problem when it comes to forming the state government. We are also confident that in this Johor state election, no party will obtain a majority," he told reporters after a walkabout at the Taman Sri Pagoh night market.
The former Johor Menteri Besar also rejected suggestions that Bersatu and PAS had become political rivals following the collapse of their formal cooperation.
"In reality, we have not separated. We are still under one roof and one umbrella. Siblings quarrel from time to time — that is normal.
"The important thing is that no one leaves the house (PN). If someone leaves the house, that is a different matter. But even so, we are still one family," he said.
Sahruddin added that he remained confident PAS would cooperate with Bersatu if an opportunity arose to establish the next Johor administration.
His remarks come amid increasing uncertainty surrounding Bersatu's prospects after PAS deputy president Datuk Seri Tuan Ibrahim Tuan Man instructed PAS supporters to vote for Barisan Nasional candidates in constituencies where PN is not contesting, arguing the strategy would prevent Pakatan Harapan from expanding its representation.
Although the directive does not directly affect seats contested by Bersatu, analysts believe it signals PAS' willingness to prioritise consolidating the broader Malay vote, even if doing so strengthens Umno, the party Bersatu was originally formed to challenge.
The pressure on Bersatu has intensified since PAS officially ended political cooperation with the party on June 8, depriving it of the grassroots machinery that had been instrumental in previous elections.
The party also suffered a setback when former Endau assemblywoman Alwiyah Talib left Bersatu to contest the constituency under the Barisan Nasional banner. Endau, together with Bukit Kepong, represents the only two seats won by Bersatu in the 2022 Johor election.
Further weakening Bersatu's campaign, PAS information chief Ahmad Fadhli Shaari reportedly instructed PAS election workers assigned to Bersatu-held constituencies to redeploy to seats contested by other PN component parties.
Bersatu is defending Bukit Kepong and Endau while contesting 14 seats statewide. PAS is fielding candidates in 11 seats, the Malaysian Indian People's Party in five, and Parti Pejuang Tanah Air in one.
A former Bersatu leader predicted the party would fare worse than it did in 2022, when it secured only two victories despite contesting 33 seats.
"In 2022, Bersatu was still part of the federal government. The machinery was intact. Resources and supporters' confidence were strong.
"But the end results are well known. For this Johor polls, the PAS machinery is also not with them," he said.
Political analysts say the signs of Bersatu's declining influence were already visible on nomination day.
Universiti Malaya senior lecturer Dr Mohammad Tawfik Yaakub told the NST that the noticeably smaller crowds accompanying Bersatu candidates reflected the party's dependence on PAS' organisational strength in previous elections.
"Bersatu faces a difficult position and uncertain future in Johor in all the seats it is contesting this time.
"And it is not impossible that Bersatu may disappear from Johor after this election, based on current political calculations and the slim majority previously won in the Bukit Kepong seat," he said.
Sahruddin is defending Bukit Kepong after winning the constituency by just 710 votes in 2022, this time without the support of PAS' election machinery.
Universiti Teknologi MARA political scientist Mujibu Abd Muis said PAS' appeal for its supporters to back Umno candidates represented a broader strategic shift rather than a simple electoral arrangement.
"When PAS openly urges its supporters to vote for Umno in certain seats, it sends a message that Bersatu's interests are no longer a priority in PAS' political calculations.
"This raises questions about the future direction of cooperation between the two parties ahead of the next general election.
"But the actual impact will depend on the extent to which PAS supporters are willing to transfer their votes.
"In today's political environment, leadership instructions are not always fully translated into voter behaviour," NST quoted him saying today.
The contrasting narratives underscore the uncertainty surrounding PN's campaign. While Sahruddin remains confident the coalition can emerge as part of the next Johor government through post-election cooperation, political observers argue Bersatu faces a defining election that could determine whether it remains a significant force in Johor politics or slips further into irrelevance. - June 30, 2026
