What exactly is Perikatan’s succession plan?

KUALA LUMPUR – The succession prospect for the prime ministership in the event Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin abruptly vacates the top post is fraught with uncertainty.

Constitutional and political observers whom The Vibes spoke to offered differing interpretations and outlooks on how the transition will take place within the current political setup and in the interest of parties within Perikatan Nasional (PN).

The disparate views only go to show how shaky and complex the scenario could turn out to be.

And this unique situation the government is facing today is a result of a peculiar decision made by Muhyiddin last year, when he opted not to appoint a deputy prime minister, a historic first in the country.

The Bersatu president – in unveiling his Cabinet on March 9, 2020 – instead appointed four senior ministers in a move he said was to ensure a functional Cabinet that will deliver the best service.

In his own words, Muhyiddin had said that all four are of equal standing, although the responsibility of overseeing the prime minister’s duties in his absence would fall on International Trade and Industry Minister Datuk Seri Mohamed Azmin Ali.

At the time, his decision not to name a deputy prime minister – which would have presumably been given to Umno – was seen as a ploy designed to safeguard his position and avoid unnecessary pressure.

But with growing uncertainty over his position and his future, the decision not to have a clear deputy could have undesirable repercussions.

Speculations have been rife previously that Muhyiddin might appoint Foreign Minister Datuk Seri Hishammuddin Hussein as his deputy, and that the latter – who is from Umno – would succeed him as the head of administration in a few months’ time.

The foreign minister – who is also the Sembrong MP – has swiftly denied the rumours, thus calling into question what exactly is PN’s succession plan.

Problems could have been avoided if DPM had been chosen

National Council of Professors senior fellow Professor Jeniri Amir said the lack of a deputy prime minister could potentially lead to a mad scramble for power among ministers and MPs within the PN outfit, when Muhyiddin eventually leaves his seat.

He said that had the prime miniser – who is also Pagoh MP – stayed with the political convention of naming a deputy, it could have avoided any lingering doubt over who his successor would be while heading off any potential crisis.

Specifically, Jeniri said this position should have been handed to Umno from the start, seeing that it is the party with the largest number of MPs in the government.

“With no number two, parties will be scrambling for the top post,” he told The Vibes today. “For Umno especially, they will feel they have the legitimacy, based on the strong ground that they are the strongest party in PN.

“But as it stands, there is a lot of obscurity. It’s impossible to have a succession plan when there is no deputy premier. I don’t know how it is a strategic move not to have appointed one.

In politics, it’s always about convention. Don’t simply try out new formulas, you are going to create a crisis. Now, there is a vacuum, and this will create problems in case something were to happen to Muhyiddin.

Jeniri added that just the fact that Muhyiddin was even appointed prime minister was the trigger point to the whole political squabbling within the ruling coalition today.

His party, Bersatu, lags behind Umno in terms of numbers, a similar issue that plagued Pakatan Harapan (PH) previously with the appointment of Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad.

Whether the Yang di-Pertuan Agong should step in and facilitate Muhyiddin’s future replacement, Jeniri said: “I think that would be unwise. The prime minister, being the person with a long history in politics, should be savvy enough to make his own decisions.”

Power in Agong’s hands to decide who becomes PM

In contrast to Jeniri’s view, constitutional expert Prof Emeritus Datuk Dr Wan Ahmad Fauzi Wan Husain pointed out that the King has, in fact, a much bigger role to play in deciding the next premier.

The Universiti Malaysia Pahang Institute of Civilisation and Strategic Studies director explained that, among other powers, His Majesty may act in his discretion on the appointment of the prime minister, as per Article 40(2)(a) of the constitution.

Additionally, he said appointing a deputy prime minister does not guarantee the person would succeed as the head of the administration, as the candidate is still required to garner the majority support of the Dewan Rakyat.

At the end of the day, the Agong will be the one deciding. He shall appoint a prime minister, who in his judgement is likely to command the confidence of the majority of the House. It doesn’t matter who and from which party.

Fauzi said while the sitting prime minister may propose a name for his successor, the King does not necessarily have to heed this advice.

He added that MPs also need not, per force, prove they have the majority backing of Parliament to be the prime minister, as this can be challenged later through a vote of no confidence, as is the case with Muhyiddin.

Asked if there is potential for further instability if appointments are being conducted in this manner, Fauzi said the Agong may, on the advice of the prime minister, dissolve Parliament and call for a fresh election to choose a new government.

“Also, I don’t think it is a must to have a deputy prime minister as preparation for the top post. This decision should be at the hands of the Agong, and I think this is fair,” he said.

Scrambling for PM-ship unlikely, considering PN’s precarious position

Meanwhile, National Council of Professors chairman Prof Datuk Dr Shamsul Amri Baharuddin believes Muhyiddin may already have a succession plan in place, knowing PN’s is already standing on thin ice, but is keeping his cards close to his chest.

He said it is most likely that his pick will be between Azmin – who is from Bersatu – and Umno’s Datuk Seri Ismail Sabri Yaakob, both senior ministers.

The political analyst said while there may be uncertainty surrounding his successor, Muhyiddin will most certainly have named an acting prime minister should the situation calls for it, especially if he suffers from any health conditions.

Shamsul also downplayed the possibility of infighting among PN components over who should take up the top post, knowing very well the unfavourable position they are in, in the eyes of the public.

I don’t think they will be scrambling for the position, because they know they are only going to lose. As it is, their position is very unstable.

“Also, I feel like after 2018, leaders are more open about bargaining and negotiating. They have no choice but to find a peaceful solution because of the precariousness of their position.

You have to know that politicians always look after their own back first, so they will make sure they remain in government.” – The Vibes, July 4, 2021