GEORGE TOWN – Universiti Sains Malaysia (USM) academics have predicted a spike of 5,000 active Covid-19 cases within two weeks, as well as an increase in virus deaths.
Mathematicians and medical experts Mohd Hafiz Mohd, Noor Atinah Ahmad, Kamarul Imran Musa and Mohammad Subhi Jamilussin urged stepped-up controls and public cooperation with health authorities to head off the trend observed in their modelling analysis.
Malaysia’s active cases number above 10,000, and the country has lost 249 lives to the disease.
“Our predictions are based on existing data. The data may change in the days to come, but the science behind these approaches is formulated to capture persistent trends in the data,” said the academics.
They said the current trend shows that control measures are insufficient.
“We can confidently say that up till October 1, Malaysia had everything under control. But after that, the virus appears to have the upper hand.
“It is time to get intervention strategies into full throttle. Movement controls in red zones must be stricter. Quarantine and physical distancing are paramount to break the chain of infections.
“We need to reduce the strain on our already limited medical resources.
“We hope the insights we are sharing highlight the importance of conducting more tests.”
A similar strategy was taken in Singapore, they said, which led to a high number of reported cases initially, but allowed the republic to more effectively curb infections.
Hafiz said the USM analysis is ongoing. – The Vibes, November 1, 2020
