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KUALA LUMPUR – The upcoming Johor polls is set to be a test bed for parties contesting, as everyone looks to gauge their influence and capabilities in anticipation of a general election (GE).
This is especially so against the sentiments of new and younger voters, analysts said.
With almost the entire lot of local parties announcing their inclusion despite it being the third in the last four months, pundits say the raised stakes at the Johor polls with the introduction of Undi18 and automatic voter registrations, is also a probable reason for the high participation rate.
Undi18 debuts to Muda’s gain?
Pundits agreed that stakes have never been higher for the youth-based party, with Universiti Malaya academic Prof Awang Azman Awang Pawi saying their performance in Johor could influence their overall credibility as a viable option for voters.
Awang Azman said Muda, being untested, will have to work out of their skins to try and secure a few seats, where victory could seal their standing among opposition parties come the general election.
“If Muda manages to win all seats they contest, they will be able to stake a claim on several parliamentary seats to be contested during the general election.
“But, if Muda does not win anything in Johor, they will lose their bargaining power with Pakatan Harapan (PH) and PKR especially. The same scenario can be said about Warisan and Pejuang,” he told The Vibes, referring to Parti Warisan Sabah, and Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad’s current outfit.
Nusantara Academy for Strategic Research (NASR) senior fellow Prof Azmi Hassan agreed, saying the inclusion of more than 700,000 voters through the Undi18 legislation also adds to Muda’s chances.
Azmi said he sees Muda, despite being new and without major controversies or scandals to be used against them, being perceived as a fresh option for voters.
“They (voters) will see Muda as a breath of fresh air within our toxic local political scenario.
I feel the older parties like Umno, PAS, PKR, DAP, and maybe even Bersatu will begin to feel threatened by Muda with its very unique approach of not having any political baggage,” he said.
However, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia’s (UKM) Assoc Prof Kartini Aboo Talib said she sees the inclusion of younger voters not necessarily working to Muda’s advantage.
Kartini said she feels Muda’s label of being age-inclusive could be a challenging vision and selling point for voters to buy into, regardless of their ages.
“Even among the 780,000 new voters, social upbringing and background heterogeneity may not guarantee all young new voters will vote for Muda,” she said.
As for senior fellow at the Singapore Institute of International Affairs (SIIA) Oh Ei Sun, Muda could prove to be a disruptive force in the local political landscape by rallying the youth but are more likely to get votes from disgruntled PH supporters.
“Muda and Warisan are essentially cannibalising on disenchanted PH voters who, nevertheless, also cannot bring themselves to vote for either Barisan Nasional or Perikatan Nasional,” he said.
Others threatened by Muda?
A recent jab by Umno’s president Datuk Seri Ahmad Zahid Hamidi against Muda and its recent blunders could suggest Umno feels threatened by their inclusion, said NASR’s Azmi, but this view was opposed by other pundits.
Oh said Umno is “entrenched” in Johor with efforts from opposing parties unlikely to uproot their influence, asserting instead how the opposition are the ones facing the uphill task.
“The mocking of Muda by Umno was mainly gratuitous, while PKR, on the other hand, is shaky both on the overall electoral ground, as well as its continuing leadership of PH, the logo of which it is ditching in the Johor election,” he pointed out.
He was referring to Zahid’s recent sarcastic statement mocking the youth-based party, where he said their shortcomings were too caused by Umno’s “greed for power”.
Awang Azman and Kartini both agreed that Johor remains an Umno stronghold, with a significant effort needed to dethrone them.
They also agreed that parties like Muda, or Sabah’s Warisan, will do well to create inroads if they manage to snatch anything away from the Malay party.
Awang Azman said the recent jab at Muda by Zahid was indicative of their perception towards the youth-based party.
“Zahid’s mocking Muda was just a joke to them, as though to suggest other parties are irrelevant, just as Muda had criticised PKR and PH before this,” he said.
This was about Muda’s president and Muar MP Syed Saddiq Syed Abdul Rahman in November last year, slamming PH for taking in party hoppers or “political frogs” to stand as candidates during the Melaka polls.
Muda has since reconciled and partnered up with PH and its component parties and will compete in at least six seats at the upcoming Johor election.
Kartini agreed with Oh that the opposition are the ones in a tough spot, and how decisions like abandoning the coalition’s emblem in the polls do not indicate rosy relationships.
She claimed that one factor could be partners DAP and Amanah threading their prospects carefully, considering PKR and Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim recent failures, including their performance in Melaka.
“PH is now at the brink, and the alliance no longer uses one party logo to represent the members,” she quipped.
Consecutive state polls a warm up for GE?
With many expecting GE to take place this year, analysts say every state election in the run-up to nationwide polls will prove to be a battle against fatigue for local parties.
UM’s Awang Azman said elections being held one after another will prove to be a test of each political party’s ability to build and sustain momentum approaching a GE.
“Parties unable to compete or keep up will see their weaknesses exposed and will fear facing a GE anytime soon, which could potentially see them quickly losing relevancy from the radar of the local political landscape,” he said.
SIIA’s Oh agreed, saying continuous and consecutive elections that lead to an eventual GE will only benefit veteran parties like Umno, who have in the past proven their ability to mobilise their election machinery efficiently.
Reiterating his point, Oh said fatigue might start kicking in not only for opposition parties but also their supporters.
“While most supporters of the opposition parties, which lack effective mobilization machinery, may become fatigued come a general election, Umno with its formidable election machinery will continue to churn out its voters at voting stations.
“This is partly why it is so confident of winning one state election after another, as well as the general election,” he explained.
NASR’s Azmi, a Johor voter himself, said he believes voters are more than willing to cast their votes amid the political instability, disagreeing with the notion of political fatigue among the electorate.
“The voters are quite excited I would think, because for the last three years, all the political fiascos have been caused by politicians, so they now have a chance to have their say and express their feelings about certain parties or a particular candidate.
“I myself am excited to vote in Johor because it would be my first chance to say my piece about the political situation,” he said.
UKM’s Kartini too felt that fatigue might not be an issue, saying voters should be used to multiple elections when living under a democratic system.
She said democracies like the United States conduct state, district level, and even local council elections almost annually, stressing how political fatigue should not be an issue.
Johor will go to the polls on March 12, with February 26 set for nomination day, and early voting on March 8. – The Vibes, February 18, 2022
