Survey predicts BN win in Johor

KUALA LUMPUR – An independent survey conducted among voters in Johor has predicted yet another landslide win for Barisan Nasional (BN) in tomorrow’s election, on the back of potentially larger vote shares.

Results from the poll conducted by the Endeavour-MGC Research Centre anticipate BN capturing a total of 31 out of the 56 seats contested, improving on their performance of 19 seats won during the 2018 general election.

The survey, which had a total of 1,068 respondents from all 56 state constituencies, revealed that BN was the favourite among most voter demographics when segmented by age, ethnicity, and income – except among the Chinese community.

94% of survey respondents expressed their intentions to come out and vote on March 12.

Figures from the survey showed that 50% of all Malay voters polled said they would vote for BN, 30% for Perikatan Nasional (PN), and only 9% for Pakatan Harapan (PH).

As for Chinese respondents, 55% said they would vote for PH, 37% for BN, and only 1% said PN.

DAP received the most affirmation from Chinese respondents, with 28% saying they would vote for the party, 13% of them throwing their support behind PKR, while only 4% of Chinese respondents said they would vote for Umno.

Among B40 respondents, 51% of respondents said they would vote for BN, with 20% picking PH and 19% PN.

Zoomed in, sentiment among B40 respondents were fairly even between Umno (13%) and Bersatu who managed 12% of votes.

As for the M40 bracket, 41% said their vote would likely go to BN, 31% to PH, and 18% for PN.

When broken down by age, 52% of those aged over 40 said they would support BN, 31% said PH, and only 12% for PN.

Meanwhile, for respondents below 40, BN received 40% of the votes, with PH and PN both receiving 23% of the votes of those considered as youth.

Interestingly, an average of 11% of survey respondents across demographics said they do not intend to vote at all.

In 2018, BN secured 39% of the popular vote, while PH, which then included Bersatu, managed to secure 53% of votes in Johor.

Key takeaways

Endeavour-MGC’s principal political analyst Oh Ei Sun said the findings showed that, despite newer parties grabbing headlines during the campaign period, they still lack in grassroots presence in Johor.

Oh said he sees new parties like Pejuang and Warisan hardly making any inroads in Johor or the peninsula political scene.

“With a rather crowded electoral field in Johor, the newer parties would have a hard time distinguishing themselves in such a short time span,” he said.

Oh also warned about the unpredictability of young voters set to vote for the first time on Saturday, with their willingness to turn out and general sentiments still unclear.

Other key takeaways include how he expects PH to still dominate the Chinese vote, but struggle in mixed areas where they lack the votes from Malays – a problem previously solved through their alliance with Bersatu.

Given the current alignment of political parties, Oh asserted that youth-based party Muda could stand a chance in the future if they officially declared themselves as a PH component.

Additionally, Oh said PN and Bersatu face an impossible task of winning Chinese votes, with their voter base being almost exclusively from the Malay community.

Separately, the survey noted that older voters still were loyal to political parties with 64% saying party comes first.

Only 55% of younger voters shared the same sentiment, indicating their preference to analyse individual candidates’ capabilities rather than their parties.

The survey did include a caveat stating that these numbers and sentiments could have changed since the survey was conducted from February 9 to February 21 – before campaigning kicked off.

“Since the survey concluded, a number of key issues have arisen that may sway some voters away from BN, namely the handling of recent floods as well as the litany of revelations linked to an ongoing US court case,” Oh added. – The Vibes, March 11, 2022