KUALA LUMPUR – Polling day for the upcoming general election (GE15) would likely be in mid-November, election observers said, despite widespread speculation that it would fall on November 5.
Election analyst G. Manimaran said he believed the earliest possible dates for the polls would either be on the 12th or 19th of November, which both fall on a Saturday.
Manimaran noted a host of reasons that an “express” poll would not be held, including the minimum time frame needed for the Election Commission to prepare for the polls, which can take at least five to six weeks.
With Prime Minister Datuk Seri Ismail Sabri Yaakob’s announcement of the dissolution of Parliament on October 10, Manimaran said a November 5 polling date would only give the EC less than a month to coordinate the largest election ever held, with over 21 million registered voters.
“Although the EC has 60 days to conduct the polling day, elections consist of various processes, one of which is to issue an election writ or notice, before announcing the nomination day and campaigning period that stretches for a minimum of 11 days,” Manimaran told The Vibes when contacted.
“Campaign period can go on for 13 or 14 days, and before polling day, there are also early polls and postal voting. All these processes need time.”
In late August, Manimaran – a former member of the Electoral Reform Committee – predicted that GE15 would be held in mid-November, given Ismail Sabri’s move to bring forward the tabling of Budget 2023 to October 7.
When contacted again yesterday, Manimaran also noted that a November 5 date would be near “impossible” given the procedural and logistical requirements of the EC.
“Holding it on the 5th of November would make things too crammed up because the EC needs to prepare the ballot papers, and it also needs to send the papers for postal votes. That’s 21 million ballot papers, plus those for state elections,” he said.
“The EC also needs time to procure indelible ink.”
Manimaran also said the EC has until next Monday to announce the days for nomination, postal voting, advanced polling, and polling day, and it also had to wait for the state assemblies to announce their respective dissolutions.
The analyst also pointed out that the EC has set 11 days as the minimum requirement for the campaigning period, which can stretch for up to two weeks.
He adds that the situation is made more complicated because the state assemblies of Terengganu, Kedah, Kelantan, Perak, Selangor, Negri Sembilan, and Penang have previously announced they would not be holding elections concurrently.
Manimaran also said this could mean higher costs for the EC, which in late September said that GE15 could cost taxpayers up to RM1.1bil, which is double the RM500 million spent for GE14.
If all six states refuse to hold their elections concurrently, Manimaran said the government may need to fork out up to RM800 million to have separate polls.
Regardless, Manimaran said a later date for the polls, such as November 26, was still “possible”, but it cannot be held after December 10.
“I believe the EC will have an internal meeting by tomorrow (Tuesday) or Wednesday and will have to make its final decision (on polling) day by early next week if the states decide not to dissolve their state assemblies,” Manimaran said.
“For an ‘express election’, I don’t think it will happen because it takes at least five weeks to ensure the elections run smoothly, taking into consideration the floods and raining season.”
Parliament observer Ong Ooi Heng echoed Manimaran’s prediction on the possible dates, pointing to the Yang di-Pertuan Agong’s consent to the dissolution so that the Election Commission could take into account the northeast monsoon season which is forecast to start mid-November.
“With 21 million voters now, it would be logistically time-consuming and there needs to be a longer campaign period to allow the EC more time to prepare for polling day,” he said when contacted.
Ong also said several weeks were needed in order to allow overseas voters to register for postal voting, adding that these voters should be allowed to download and print their own ballots to save time.
Furthermore, he also suggested mega-voting centres for advanced or postal votes, especially for East Malaysians residing and working in the peninsula.
On the administration of the government following the dissolution of Parliament, Ong said the caretaker prime minister and cabinet can oversee its daily operations but may not make any new major policy decisions.
“They (caretaker government) can still continue with the plans agreed upon before the dissolution, but the new government must re-table the Budget 2023 and reintroduce the bills that passed during the last parliamentary sitting but have not gone through Dewan Negara.” – The Vibes, October 11, 2022
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