KUALA LUMPUR – Speculation on when the 15th general election (GE15) will be held has been rife since the tabling of Budget 2023 was brought forward by three weeks to October 7.
Election analyst G. Manimaran read the move as a telling sign that polls could well be called sooner than the end of the current term of Parliament that will automatically dissolve on July 16 next year.
Since the budget tabling is set to take place on October 7, contrary to October 28 as scheduled earlier, Manimaran said it would be wise to expect GE15 to be held six weeks after – in mid-November.
Based on his experience as a former member of the Electoral Reform Committee, he also did not rule out the possibility that the election could be called in the midst of the budget debate.
“The rationale behind it is that the finance minister can table the budget on October 7 and it is possible that the prime minister could call for the dissolution of Parliament the following week,” he told The Vibes.
“From there, the Election Commission (EC) has ten days to hold a special meeting and the commission needs a minimum of six weeks to make arrangements to hold a special meeting to discuss the date of the election writ, nomination day and polling day.
“As usual, the nomination date would normally be about two weeks after the EC meeting and the campaigning period is set for a minimum of 11 days.”
Manimaran added that based on his experience, the polling date could be set on November 19, a Saturday.
Pointing out the backlash the Barisan Nasional (BN) administration received for calling a surprise midweek election back in 2018, he said the same occurrence would be unlikely to happen again.
“People have protested against it in GE14, so this time around they will return to hold the polling on a Saturday.
“The latest it has to be held is on November 19 because it is the monsoon season from end-November onwards, with risks of floods.”
The co-author of a book on elections in Malaysia titled Pilihan Raya Demokrasi Malaysia: Tanding, Pilih, Menang, Tadbir also drew parallels between Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim’s sentencing in 1999 and Datuk Seri Najib Razak’s recent conviction.
For the record, Anwar was found guilty of corruption charges in April 1999 and then prime minister Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad later called for an election in September the same year.
On Tuesday, Najib became the first former Malaysian prime minister to serve jail time, following the apex court’s decision to uphold the high court’s previous ruling that Najib is guilty of all seven charges in his case.
The five-member bench chaired by Chief Justice Tun Tengku Maimun Tuan Mat upheld the court decision on Najib’s conviction of all seven charges in the SRC International case and his 12-year prison sentence.
With the recent developments around the country, the nation could potentially be looking at the possibility of another November election – just almost 23 years after the conviction of Anwar.
“At no other time has the election been called towards the end of the year due to the monsoon.
“This would be the only other time if it’s called, that an election is being held in November.”
While the grapevine has it that the election would only be held after the Chinese New Year celebrations next year, the current political climate is very fluid, especially with the Umno political bureau’s recent calls for Prime Minister Datuk Seri Ismail Sabri Yaakob to call for early polls.
Therefore, Manimaran also did not disregard the fact that Parliament could be dissolved without the tabling of the budget.
“I think the Umno meetings that will be held today could be a determining factor whether the election will be called sooner or later,” he said. – The Vibes, August 27, 2022
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