FOR the past four years President Donald Trump has held his base by being the “chief disrupter”, the politically incorrect voice of a populist movement that seems to love his shattering of what used to be civil discourse and social norms.
It has become his brand and that is why I feel all along that his plan going into the first debate in Cleveland this week is to steamroll everyone in his path.
He constantly attacked Democratic rival and former vice president Joe Biden, with baseless and at times totally off the wall claims, while disrespecting moderator Chris Wallace, who attempted to keep some order.
With a month from the November 3rd election and trailing in all the polls, President Trump needed something memorable. So, he checked all of his base related boxes by dominating the 90-minute debate, never denounce his support of white supremacists’ groups, called into question the validity of mail-in ballots and would not agree to a peaceful transfer of power once the election is done.
Let me be clear: this is the very first time in history that a President of the United States called into question if an election would be fair and then would not agree that he would accept a validated outcome, win or lose. But when your brand is to blow up the norms, it makes sense.
The Democratic Party has signed up a record number of voters for 2020 and because of Covid-19 they have urged those voters to vote by mail in the interest of safety. It should be noted that for the record in past elections Republicans have dominated mail-in voting but in 2020, it is the Democrats who have a decided edge in that column.
Meanwhile, the Trump team is taking a page out of the 2016 playbook when they lost the popular vote by nearly three million votes to former Secretary of State and Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton.
It was candidate Trump who won the Electoral College vote 304 to 227 (270 votes are needed to become president) and that gave him the White House.
It should be noted that by narrow victories in Arizona, Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Trump won the election by just a little less than 80,000 votes combined in 2016.
But as of today, the polls have Biden leading Trump by an average of 12 points. In modern history, no candidate with a lead that large has ever lost the election. So, in 2020 Biden is likely to win the popular vote by more than Clinton did in 2016.
That is something that the Trump campaign has conceded but they continue to feel they can still get the 270 Electoral College votes if they can repeat a narrow swing state victory.
But what Trump needs is a combination of turning out his base in record numbers and doing his best to keep Biden’s vote low in those key battleground states.
That means he must suppress the Democratic vote and since more potential Biden supporters are likely to vote by mail then he must sow the seeds of doubt that even if you cast a ballot it will be contested in court. He is getting help in where Republicans either serve as governors or they control the legislatures.
This week, Texas Republican Governor Greg Abbott announced that each county in the state would be given just one drop off box for mail-in ballots. When you consider cities, such as Austin, Dallas, El Paso, Houston and San Antonio are Democratic strongholds, the idea of more than 10 million people having access to five-drop boxes is mind-boggling.
In Georgia, Governor Brian Kemp, another Republican who is a Trump ally, has cut down the number of polling places in areas of the state where large numbers of people of colour would normally vote.
He is also pushing to have only the votes that come in by mail on November 3 counted despite a state-wide rule that says as long as the ballot is postmarked by November 3, they could be counted as late as 10 days after the election because so many of the state’s residents are serving in the military around the world.
Meanwhile, in the key swing states of Pennsylvania and Wisconsin where the governors are Democrats, but Republicans are attempting to create a number of reasons to reject mail-in ballots control the state legislatures. That would allow the state legislatures to pick who wins the state.
In the swing state of Michigan where Biden has a commanding lead, robo-calls have gone out warning voters that if they vote by mail, their personal information would be stolen. Just this week, the Michigan state attorney brought charges against those who were putting out this false information.
So, as we sit here just about a month from Election Day, what is normal is not likely be that way. We won’t know who will win yet. That is not a bad thing as long as it is because states are counting the ballots. But you can bet that lawyers from both parties will be ready to go to court in all 50 states.
That said, I do expect an orderly transfer of power because that is one norm that I really believe will take place no matter who wins. But there I do expect plenty of ugliness before the final tally comes in – led by the Disrupter-In-Chief. – The Vibes, October 4, 2020
Tomorrow: Debate Debacle Part 2: Trump’s October surprise
Jim Williams is a seven-time Emmy Award-winning broadcaster who has covered every presidential election since 1976. He runs his own media organisation LJC L.L.C Media out of Washington DC.
