Melaka election: a variety of reasons for success and failures – Terence Fernandez

IS THE Melaka election result an accurate barometer of what is to come for the players in the 15th General Election (GE15)?

Is Pakatan Harapan (PH) a spent force – having captured the state in 2018 with 15 seats but only managed five this time around?

Are the people of Melaka voting along racial lines as Malay-based party Umno dominated this time around taking 18 seats, while its Barisan Nasional (BN) partners, MCA and MIC, took two seats and one seat respectively?

Is DAP, which has been a formidable party in Melaka, losing its influence having managed to win only four of the eight seats it contested – all eight being incumbent constituencies?

What does it mean for the future of Perikatan Nasional (PN), which managed to hang on by the skin of its teeth – winning just two of the 28 seats it contested?

Why is PAS rejected by Melakans? When would conservative voters be drawn to the Islamist party’s agenda?

Is it time for PKR to rethink its strategy having been wiped out from all the seats it contested as PH?

Is the election result an indication of a split in the Malay votes? As Malay voters split their loyalties between Umno and Bersatu?

These are certainly food for thought as victor and vanquished take stock of last night’s results – one in celebration, the other licking its wounds.

A low voter turnout is always in BN’s favour as hardened grassroots and loyalists reliably go out come hell or high water to cast their ballots.

Despite the pandemic, a 65.85% turnout exceeded earlier estimates of 55%.

Did PH voters shy away because of fears of a spike in Covid-19 cases? Or is it just fatigued and disillusioned by the political frailty of its state – the second time going to the polls in three years – and the second time the state has fallen because of political “frogs” and internal party strife that saw the defeat of two chief ministers in as many years.

Did voters choose to punish PH – especially PKR – for accepting two of the four assemblymen who were responsible for the collapse of the Umno-led government last month?

That once chief minister Datuk Seri Idris Haron’s loss is a message to him that the voters did not appreciate his role in leading the coup against Datuk Seri Sulaiman Md Ali – who has returned as chief minister.

This could be further amplified in Pengkalan Batu where Datuk Norhizam Hassan Baktee of “Awak YB ke, saya YB” fame lost his deposit defending his seat as an independent after being sacked by DAP for his role in the collapse of the state government.

If morality was a factor for the rakyat, how then can one explain the success of the Najib factor in drawing votes?

Are Melakans forgetful or forgiving of his starring role in 1MDB? Or is Najib redeeming himself with a narrative that speaks to the man in the street – economic recovery, youth unemployment and successful pandemic management.

The country’s sixth prime minister had been working hard in the Malay heartlands of villages and suburbs.

The strategy to completely ignore urban areas with a sizeable number of non-Malay voters seems to have worked as the Bossku machinery proved it could bring in the numbers when it mattered.

Speaking of strong personalities, several PH members expressed surprise that the holy trinity of Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim-Lim Guan Eng-Mat Sabu did not charm voters as they usually would have.

Perhaps the coalition is being punished for condoning the actions of the notorious four assemblymen who caused the fall of the state and pushed for an election nobody wanted.

Perhaps the celebrity of these veteran leaders is waning among younger voters? Is Anwar’s numerous “nearly there” moments encouraging supporter lethargy?

Perhaps there is PH fatigue – that it actually won the federal government three years ago but allowed the opportunity to slip through its fingers had caused discontent among supporters who would usually come in droves to vote for its candidates but decided to sit out this time.

Are Malay voters not warming up to PH or have they turned cold since 2018?

Former PH chief minister Adly Zahari took Bukit Katil with 6,805 votes. 

However, the Umno and PN candidates he beat had a combined total of 9,465 votes – another seat for BN-PN in the state assembly if they had united for Melaka as they had in their marriage of convenience in Putrajaya.

Similarly in Paya Rumput, PKR’s Datuk Seri Shamsul Iskandar Mohd Akin lost by just 629 votes to Umno’s Datuk Rais Yasin who garnered just 6,830 votes. 

However, PN candidate Muhammad Faris Izwan Mazlan gained 3,972 votes, which would have given a BN-PN combo 10,802 ballots.

Chinese voters, too, are known to punish incumbents by voting against or not voting at all.

This was evident in Machap Jaya – a PKR safe seat. But the dropping of the popular Datuk Ginie Lim was hard to swallow and PKR lost Machap Jaya to MCA’s Ngwe Hee Sem.

This is one election where there is no one reason for failure nor one formula for success.

Come GE15, it is not the cleanest or most competent candidate or party that will win the day. The parties that will make it to the finish line are the ones who listen to what the people are saying and who speak to them in their language. – The Vibes, November 21, 2021

Terence Fernandez is editor-in-chief of PETRA News that publishes The Vibes and Getaran