A YOUNG electorate, fragmented contests and surging local issues reshape voting behaviour as experts predict major coalitions may still gain from vote-splitting.
Sabah’s seventeenth state election is set to challenge one of the state’s most enduring political traits – its reputation for choosing people over parties.
With a staggering 596 candidates vying for 73 seats, including constituencies facing 13- and 14-cornered contests, analysts say the sheer congestion of the ballot threatens to overwhelm voters’ ability to assess individual credibility, long considered the cornerstone of Sabah’s political culture.
Universiti Malaysia Sabah Prof Dr Romzi Ationg said voters in the state have never been defined by the ethnic or religious voting patterns often seen in the peninsula.
“Sabah voters are not focused on race or religion; those are not decisive factors. What matters is whether the candidate has been present, engaged and capable of delivering solutions,” he told The Star.
Analysts note that prominent figures no longer command the automatic loyalty they once did, as voters increasingly favour those who have demonstrated genuine commitment in their constituencies.
However, the unprecedented number of contestants may dilute this personality-driven style of voting.
Tulid has entered a 14-cornered fight, while Inanam, Tamparuli, Bandau and Kapayan each feature 13 contenders.
Datuk Tony Paridi Bagang of Universiti Teknologi MARA Sabah warned that excessive candidate fragmentation can distort outcomes. He observed that fragmented contests tend to strengthen broader political blocs.
“Traditionally, vote-splitting tends to benefit larger coalitions,” he said, arguing that parties with robust machinery and grassroots organisation stand to gain when ballots scatter.
Demographics are also poised to play a major role. According to the Election Commission, 43 per cent of Sabah’s electorate is under 40 and 54 per cent under 50, making it among the youngest voter bases in Malaysia.
Romzi said younger voters are more attuned to economic opportunities, service delivery and the tangible performance of candidates rather than ideology.
“Young voters are looking at the potential of the individual candidate, not the party they represent,” he said. Tony concurred, adding that the youth vote is far from monolithic and depends heavily on “the younger people’s political literacy, awareness and confidence in the candidates”.
Ethnic considerations remain part of Sabah’s electoral fabric, albeit in a more fluid form than in Peninsular Malaysia. Tony highlighted a rise in intra-ethnic competition this time, with several seats featuring multiple candidates from similar backgrounds.
Meanwhile, issues tied to the Malaysia Agreement 1963 (MA63) and Sabah’s 40 per cent revenue entitlement continue to surface prominently.
Though Putrajaya has chosen not to appeal the High Court ruling – contesting only its reasoning – analysts say communication gaps have left the issue vulnerable to political exploitation.
Romzi pointed to public uncertainty surrounding the Attorney-General’s request for the written judgment as one source of confusion.
Despite the crowded field, some observers believe voters may ultimately gravitate back towards major coalitions due to perceived stability.
Universiti Malaya’s Dr Mohammad Tawfik Yaakub said this pattern is consistent with historical practice. “Although many candidates are contesting in each constituency, choosing major coalitions is unsurprising because it has long been a norm in Sabah’s political culture,” he said.
Several constituencies have emerged as key flashpoints. Usukan is set for a heavyweight contest, while Matunggong will see Datuk Julita Majungki face Datuk Wetrom Bahanda. Tamparuli’s blend of old faces and newcomers has drawn attention, as has Moyog’s 12-cornered race.
In Sindumin, PKR is fielding the eldest son of the Yang di-Pertua Negeri of Sabah, Tun Musa Aman, and in Kundasang, incumbent Datuk Seri Dr Joachim Gunsalam is reportedly under pressure from rising challengers.
As Sabah approaches one of its most unpredictable elections, analysts say voters will confront an unusually difficult calculation: weighing individual merit against coalition strength, novelty against familiarity and personal reputation against political machinery.
Whether the state’s deeply held belief in choosing the person over the party can endure this unprecedented electoral clutter remains the central question of PRN17. - November 16, 2025
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