KUALA LUMPUR – The ringgit is expected to trade on the upside bias moving between 4.1025 and 4.1225 next week, predominantly driven by the movement of the US dollar and influenced by the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) taper decision.
SPI Asset Management global managing partner Stephen Innes said the ringgit was traded on moderately better footing as foreign exchange investors bought into the Fed’s current mantra to remain dovish regardless of strong economic data in the near term.
On another note, he shared that China’s trade surplus jumped to US$42.9 billion (RM176.66 billion) in April, from US$13.8 billion in March, which was larger than expected, outstripping analysts’ expectations as exports continued to rise.
“This should help drive US dollar/Chinese yuan downside in the near term. That, in turn, should benefit the currencies of economies with large China export.
“Given that Malaysia has solid export ties with China, it could also provide a bullish fillip to the beleaguered ringgit,” he told Bernama.
Bank Islam chief economist Mohd Afzanizam Abdul Rashid opined that the US dollar/ringgit pair would move in a tight range next week with all eyes on the first quarter (Q1) 2021 gross domestic product (GDP) which will be published on May 11.
“We are pencilling in a 1.5% contraction in the Q1 2021 GDP,” he added.
On a Friday-to-Friday basis, the ringgit weakened versus the US dollar to 4.1100/1140 from 4.0870/0930 a week earlier.
The local note was also lower against other major currencies.
It fell against the Singapore dollar to 3.0870/0916 from 3.0785/0839 a week earlier and slipped against the Japanese yen to 3.7662/7702 from 3.7520/7581.
The ringgit weakened vis-a-vis the British pound to 5.7203/7267 from 5.6834/6930 on Friday last week and decreased against the euro to 4.9632/9697 from 4.9428/9509.
Meanwhile, short-term rates are expected to remain stable next week on Bank Negara Malaysia’s (BNM) operations to absorb surplus liquidity from the cash market.
During the week, the average Islamic overnight interest rate remained pegged at 1.72%, while the one-, two- and three-week rates stood at 1.78%, 1.81%, and 1.85%, respectively.
For the week just ended, the central bank intervened on a daily basis to reduce excess funds from the financial system by conducting conventional money market tenders, Islamic range maturity auction Qard tenders, range maturity auction money market tenders, reverse repo tenders and commodity murabahah programme tenders.
BNM also announced the availability of reverse repo, sale and buy-back agreement, and collateralised commodity Murabahah facilities for tenors of one to three months during the week.
The total liquidity surplus in the conventional system for the week decreased to RM34.63 billion from RM37.81 billion in the preceding week, while in the Islamic system, it fell to RM17.82 billion from RM20.79 billion previously. – Bernama, May 8, 2021
