KUALA LUMPUR – Manufacturing output, which recorded the slowest growth in five months in October 2022, is expected to continue to moderate as demand remains fragile amid ongoing uncertainties, according to AmBank Research.
“We expect continued moderations in input buying, stocks, and business confidence and we expect manufacturing will grow moderately in the fourth quarter of this year (Q4 2022). This would weigh on the overall economic performance during the quarter,” it said in a research note.
Its preliminary estimation showed the Q4 2022 gross domestic product (GDP) would hover around 6.1% to 8.1% following an average of 9.2% for the first three quarters of 2022, bringing the full-year GDP to between 8.5% and 9.0%.
AmBank Research said that its GDP outlook for 2023 is about 4.5%, supported by domestic demand and aided by exports.
Meanwhile, Kenanga Investment Bank said the continued contraction in Malaysia’s manufacturing purchasing managers’ index, coupled with weakening external demand amid global growth slowdown and subsiding domestic consumption amid tighter financial conditions, may continue to exert downward pressure on manufacturing activity in the final quarter of 2022.
In a note, it said Q4 2022 GDP growth is forecast to settle at 6.6% (Q3 2022: 14.2%) on expectation of weaker private consumption.
The investment bank also retained its 2022 manufacturing index forecast at 9.5% (2021: 9.5%). – Bernama, December 13, 2022
