HONG KONG – Asian markets mostly rose today over murmurs that the US Federal Reserve may loosen its monetary tightening but stocks in Hong Kong and China fell after Beijing announced its lowest economic growth target in decades.
Traders in Tokyo appeared bullish about positive news flowing in from the United States where Wall Street had rallied on Friday. An end-of-week slide in Treasury bond yields fortified beliefs that the Federal Reserve was nearing the end of its rate-hiking cycle.
The Nikkei 225 jumped over 1% in early trade, with gains posted in Taipei, Seoul, Jakarta, and Sydney.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is set to discuss monetary policy before the House and Senate committees tomorrow, proceedings that will be watched closely by investors angling for positive interest rate news.
“Most important will be whether the chair takes the opportunity to express a preference for sticking with a 25bp (basis points) hike in March or if he leaves the door ajar for returning to a faster pace this month,” said Stephen Innes of SPI Asset Management.
“If Powell does not slam the door shut on the potential for a larger hike, markets could put substantially more weight on a 50bp hike at the March meeting in response to last month’s hotter data.”
But stocks in Hong Kong and mainland China swam against the tide after uninspiring economic news from Beijing.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index sunk around half a percent and both Shanghai and Shenzhen were also down.
Outgoing Premier Li Keqiang announced an “around 5%” growth figure yesterday – slightly below what analysts had predicted – as China’s annual National People’s Congress opened in Beijing.
The world’s second-largest economy posted just 3% growth last year, missing its stated target of around 5.5% by a wide margin as the economy strained under the impact of strict Covid-19 containment policies and a property crisis.
But Li maintained a positive tone in his hour-long speech.
“China’s economy is staging a steady recovery and demonstrating vast potential and momentum for further growth,” he said, adding that China would aim to create “around 12 million new urban jobs” this year and bring the urban unemployment rate to around 5.5%.
Analysts say more revelations toward the end of the NPC could bolster markets as China looks to silent scepticism around its economic recovery.
“Over the next few days, the fiscal budget report and discussions on the party and government institutional reforms could offer a more market-friendly interlude,” Innes said.
“Investors are already setting sights on a press conference to be held by new government leaders on March 13th, which may convey more forward-looking policy clues.” – AFP, March 6, 2023
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