THE Ayer Kuning state by-election in Perak has become a key battleground for assessing the strength of the collaboration between Barisan Nasional (BN) and Pakatan Harapan (PH) under Malaysia’s Unity Government, amid ongoing efforts by Perikatan Nasional (PN) to consolidate support among Malay voters, particularly the youth.
According to a report by independent research firm Ilham Centre, BN is expected to retain the traditional stronghold, but the real challenge lies in whether its partnership with PH can significantly boost support to meet the ambitious majority target of 18,000 votes announced by Perak Menteri Besar Datuk Seri Saarani Mohamad.
“The target is placing pressure on the campaign machinery of both coalition parties, as the majority of respondents in our study believe the figure will be difficult to achieve,” the report noted.
This by-election has also marked a shift in campaign style, moving away from large-scale rallies to a more discreet, micro-level approach. The campaign has focused on a ‘man-to-man marking’ strategy, with candidates and party workers engaging directly with voters through door-to-door visits, while also making extensive use of social media platforms.
PN has taken a more aggressive stance in the digital space, in contrast to BN and PH’s more defensive posture. Meanwhile, the Socialist Party of Malaysia (PSM) has maintained a consistent campaign focused on labour and social welfare issues, targeting the Indian community in the plantation areas.
BN candidate Dr Yusri Bakir, a former local teacher, has leveraged personal ties and nostalgic sentiments among former students and their families, building a tightly organised campaign centred in residential areas. On the other hand, PN’s candidate Ustaz Abd Muhaimin Malek, known for his religious teaching in mosques and suraus, has employed a modest campaign strategy based on small-group talks, which has resonated in Malay-majority polling districts previously won by PN in the 15th General Election.
“Young voters still favour PN as their main choice. However, the apathy of youths residing outside the area, particularly in the Klang Valley and Penang, and their reluctance to return to vote could critically undermine PN’s strength,” the report observed.
UMNO’s youth wing continues to struggle in regaining the trust of young voters, many of whom remain sceptical of BN, suggesting that negative sentiments towards the party have yet to be reversed.
Local issues such as pig waste pollution have been weaponised by PN in racially charged narratives, particularly among Malay voters, despite the risk of backlash. PH has instead focused its attacks on the credibility of the PN candidate, particularly questioning his religious teaching credentials.
Nationally, PN is framing the by-election as a referendum on the Madani Government and the UMNO-DAP partnership. Among non-Malay voters, DAP and MCA are said to be operating separately in a bid to convince PH supporters to back the BN candidate.
The Orang Asli community is expected to remain loyal to BN, citing long-standing service and relationships. PSM is fielding Bawani KS, who has consistently championed employment opportunities and plantation worker welfare, with backing from key MIC leaders such as Datuk Seri M Saravanan playing a role in swaying Indian voters.
Ilham Centre concluded that no single candidate is currently dominant in the race. The final outcome will likely depend on how effectively the PH-BN alliance can convert political cooperation into voter support, and whether PN can sustain its momentum and reclaim areas it previously held.
“The Ayer Kuning by-election is not only pivotal in shaping local political direction, but also serves as an early indicator of shifting voter dynamics ahead of the next general election,” the report stated.
The Ilham Centre research panel includes Associate Professor Dr Mohd Yusri Ibrahim (Chief Researcher), Hisommudin Bakar (Executive Director), Mohd Azlan Zainal (Chief Operating Officer), Mohd Jalaluddin Hashim (Head of Analytics), and Research Fellow Mujibu Abd Muis. - April 25, 2025
