PAKATAN Harapan risks losing ground in Melaka if its supporters become discouraged by a campaign focused on adding seats rather than reclaiming the state government, political analyst Dr Azmi Hassan has warned.
Azmi said Melaka PH chairman’s admission that the coalition was not targeting a return to power but seeking to increase its representation could undermine the confidence of voters who had backed PH in previous elections.
PH governed Melaka from 2018 until its administration collapsed in 2020.
“PH, which has governed Melaka before, needs to give its supporters hope,” Azmi said, warning that voters might see little reason to turn out if the coalition itself appeared to have abandoned the prospect of forming the next state government.
He cautioned that the strategy could cost PH seats it already holds, with PAS potentially emerging as a beneficiary.
At the 2021 state election, Barisan Nasional won 21 of the 28 seats, while PH secured five and Perikatan Nasional took two.
Azmi said BN could retain its existing strength while adding seats at PH’s expense, although the eventual outcome will depend on voter support and the contest in individual constituencies.
Adly has acknowledged that regaining control of Melaka would be a mammoth task, saying PH’s immediate objective is to increase its seat count rather than win the state election outright.
The Amanah vice-president also raised the possibility of a hung assembly, which could force parties to negotiate a coalition government similar to the arrangement at federal level.
He pointed to Umno’s decision to form an electoral pact with PAS as an indication that cooperation between parties could be important in determining the outcome.
Adly said PH would need about 30% of the Malay vote to improve its chances in several key battlegrounds.
“If we only garner 20% of Malay votes, we may only be able to add a few seats.
“However, if we fail to even reach 20%, we risk losing some of the seats we won previously,” he was quoted as saying.
Adly, who is seeking a third term in Bukit Katil, has acknowledged that the seat is also at risk.
Malays account for 65% of Bukit Katil’s electorate, followed by Chinese voters at 29.7% and Indians at 4.26%.
Adly won the seat in 2018 with a majority of 3,159 votes, which narrowed to 1,057 in the 2021 election.
The figures underline the challenge facing PH as it prepares for the Nov 14 polls. The coalition must defend its existing seats while trying to attract more Malay voters, even as its leadership acknowledges the difficulty of dislodging BN.
Azmi’s warning raises a broader question for PH: whether managing expectations will help the coalition concentrate on winnable constituencies or risk weakening the enthusiasm it needs to hold on to its existing seats. – October 26, 2026
