[UPDATED] Ismail Sabri as PM a certainty… or is it?

KUALA LUMPUR – Is it with certainty that one can put their money on Umno vice-president Datuk Seri Ismail Sabri Yaakob as the country’s ninth prime minister?

Several Umno and Barisan Nasional lawmakers last night said a consensus has been reached to name the Bera MP for the top job.

However, how can it be a consensus when a number of Umno MPs are rumoured to have pulled support for the former deputy prime minister?

Former Federal Territories minister Tan Sri Annuar Musa in a Facebook post said other allied parties – supposedly those from the Perikatan Nasional government – have vowed to back any candidate from Barisan Nasional.

In all, the Ketereh lawmaker said more than 69 MPs will pledge their support. Add this to BN’s 42 lawmakers, and it is enough to achieve the magic number of 111 for a new government to be formed.

Based on calculations according to the original PN alignment, this means Ismail Sabri will have the backing of 115 MPs, including those from PAS and Gabungan Parti Sarawak (GPS), and independents.

If this is true, Malaysians will technically welcome back the very same government that lost federal power just two days ago, with tweaks to the leadership and some ministers expected to retake their previous cabinet posts.

But, here is where things get interesting.

According to a statement issued by Dewan Rakyat Speaker Datuk Azhar Azizan Harun yesterday, all lawmakers are to send to the Yang di-Pertuan Agong the name of a single MP whom they wish to lead the nation, by 4pm today.

The main caveat? MPs must maintain the secrecy of their statutory declarations until the king decides who becomes prime minister.

This has all but opened the door for parliamentarians who may not be keen on the candidates backed by their parties to submit a different name to the Agong.

And if going by the 115 MPs supposedly backing Ismail Sabri, it takes only six to propose another name to His Majesty for the Umno man’s ambition to be thwarted.

Granted, the names of these MPs will eventually become public knowledge, especially if a vote of confidence is held in Parliament once a new prime minister is appointed.

Also, Malaysia will likely see a different prime minister – possibly either opposition chief Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim or Warisan president Datuk Seri Mohd Shafie Apdal – appointed only if all other MPs back the same person.

But as far as support for Ismail Sabri is concerned, the most likely to stray from the agreement is the Umno faction led by president Datuk Seri Ahmad Zahid Hamidi.

While Zahid and Ismail Sabri yesterday appeared to have ironed out their differences, the pair and their factions have been at each other’s throats over the past couple of months, following a power struggle at the federal level.

This could sway Zahid and his allies of at least a dozen MPs, particularly if they are promised certain rewards by the opposing side.

If they remain behind Ismail Sabri, there is a slim possibility that some within Bersatu might not back Umno’s candidate.

Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin in his final address as prime minister on Monday said he will not work with kleptocrats, in a clear message to Zahid’s faction, whose withdrawal of support last month caused the collapse of the PN government.  

Already, Pakatan Harapan has invited defectors to return to the coalition in a bid to form a government similar to the one mandated by the people in the last general election.

However, indications point towards Bersatu MPs favouring an Umno leadership.

Another factor that could come into play is if the opposition agrees to back Shafie as prime minister – there has been a gentlemen’s agreement that the Sabah MP will take the lead role in the race to form the government if Anwar fails to garner enough support.

Such a move – which will see the country’s first Borneo prime minister – could potentially convince GPS’ 18 MPs to swing their support, paving the way for equal rights for East Malaysian states and the full implementation of the Malaysia Agreement 1963.

With just hours remaining before the window for MPs to submit their SDs closes, and with parties still holding emergency meetings, things could go down to the wire.

Whatever happens between now and 4pm will decide the country’s fate. – The Vibes, August 18, 2021